By George Elek - 25 October 2024
The amuse bouche to Sunday’s main course of Arsenal v Liverpool sees Middlesbrough travel to Norwich in what, as is often the case, should be a far more tasty affair than the main event. Although, given this will be the first game of the post-Delia era at Carrow Road, who can say what will be cooked up?
Sorry, that wasn’t nearly as clever or funny as I hoped it would be.
There has been steady money for the away side here, backed in from 13/8 into 7/5 clear favourites off the back of a dominant 1-0 win over Sheffield United on Wednesday night.
They’ve also had the luxury of two home games in this triple gameweek, whereas opponents Norwich have had to travel cross country from Norfolk to Stoke and back, before then retracing their steps a few days later and some with a midweek trip to Preston. Norwich will be delighted to be back at home for this one, but it’s hard to ignore Boro’s easier ride in this gruelling week.
Michael Carrick’s side are the data darlings of the Championship so far, but have been plagued over the last 18 months or so by being unable to translate their data dominance into actual points, and it felt like it was going to be a similar story against Blades in midweek until Emmanuel Latte Lath finally finished his dinner after a sumptuous cross from a player we’ll get onto shortly.
They rank 1st for shots, 1st for open-play shots and 3rd for xG, but 17th for goals scored. That surely won’t continue and, if they keep posting those kind of numbers, someone can expect a shellacking at the hands of Middlesbrough very soon.
Will that be Norwich? There seems little reason to think so given they are unbeaten at Carrow Road this season have dished out a couple of shellacking themselves, putting four past both Watford and Hull. That they’ve already hosted Leeds and Sheffield United and come away with a draw in both shows just how tough a test this is so, despite concerns over their preparations and some clear reasons to think Boro will come good, I’m in no rush to back an away win at 7/5.
But, as mentioned, the ball is going to start going in the goal soon if Boro keep having all of these shots and one beneficiary of that will be Finn Azaz, arguably the best kicker of a football in the EFL. In a team who are defined by their energy out of possession, Azaz might as well play sitting down in comparison, but his creative passing and long-range shooting ability set him apart.
He scored eight goals in Plymouth Argyle’s promotion season out of League One and then 11 last season in the Championship across the two clubs having moved in January. He’s yet to find the back of the net this time around, but not for lack of trying. He’s had 32 shots, totalling an xG of 2.36 and an xGOT of 3.79, which in English means he’s having loads of quite good shots but these pesky keepers keep saving them when you wouldn’t expect them to.
One person who doesn’t make many saves that you wouldn’t expect him to is George Long, Norwich’s deputy keeper who could release a double-disced Greatest Hits of saves he should have made but didn’t. Angus Gunn is injured, so Long will likely start in between the sticks again despite being at fault for all three goals scored against Norwich in the past few days.
I have no doubt that Finn Azaz will be very aware of this and will be looking to make Long work as much as possible. The 9/2 about him to score anytime will cop soon enough anyway, but I’d be very surprised if we don’t get a good run for our money on Sunday given he will surely be tasked with exposing Norwich’s glaring weakness.
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