GEORGE ELEK: Premier League new boys big value for the drop at odds against

The Premier League kicks-off this weekend so, although this will be an EFL column for the rest of the season, we’re going with a season-long top tier bet this time around.

The rationale does come from The Championship, with Southampton the team in question and relegation the market. Saints are 11/10 with AK Bets for the drop which looks to me to be the best value ante-post bet in the Premier League this season.

The first angle of attack is the ever-widening gulf between English football’s top two tiers. The three promoted teams from last season came straight back down and it wasn’t even close.

If we take away Nottingham Forest’s points deduction then Luton, who finished 18th, were 10 points off safety, Burnley were 12 and Sheffield United 20. Their goal differences were -33, -37 and -69 respectively, so -139 vs the rest of the league. Forest’s was the next worst at -18. It looks like it was a poor group of promoted sides, but they were all absolutely miles off staying up even with the help of two perceived relegation rivals being docked points, so it’s a tall order for those coming up to do so.

Next, we look at the quality of Southampton themselves, who finished nine points shy of Ipswich and 10 behind Champions Leicester. There is little doubt that they were the poorer of the three sides coming up, yet they are the biggest price to go down seemingly based on little more than reputation or some kind of Premier League calibre which is impossible to quantify, because it’s irrelevant.

Leicester are 4/9 favourites due to a points deduction hanging over their head, the extent of which reportedly could be enough to relegate them on the spot, but I can’t really work out why Ipswich are 5/6 to go down when Saints are 11/10.

Not only were Ipswich the better side last season, but they’ve also been the ones more active in the transfer market with their spend likely heading towards £100m by the time the window closes. Southampton have made two big money signings in the form of Taylor Harwood-Bellis and Flynn Downes, both of whom were at the club last season on loan so only maintain the quality rather than provide anything to improve them.

Finally, and maybe most importantly, we have the style of play. I was impressed with the way Russell Martin set Saints up for the play-off final against Leeds, sacrificing his possession-heavy philosophy in acknowledgement of the importance of winning that one game.

Any thoughts that he might be approaching this season in the Premier League in a similar way look misguided given the recruitment of ball-playing centre-backs Harwood-Bellis, Ronnie Edwards and Nathan Wood, as well as the commitment to playing out from the back in their pre-season games.

We got a glimpse of what this may look like last season with Burnley, who came up a much better side that Southampton, but were still unable to fight fire with fire with any great success. Martin adopting this approach will surely be a kamikaze move for Southampton, although one that might benefit Martin’s own career progression as he follows the Vincent Kompany blueprint to a top job.

Ipswich’s style of play, with a focus on aggression off the ball rather than taking risks in possession, should translate to the step up much better than Southampton, in the same way that Luton coped better than Burnley.

I’m really surprised to see Southampton available at odds-against to go straight back down and would happily back them at that price even if one of the three spots was already given to Leicester.

Selections:

3pt Southampton relegation @ 11/10