George Elek: Don’t Look a Gift Horse in the Mouth

Every so often there is a price that rears its head and makes everyone double take, so out of line with the general perceptions of the two teams that it just looks wrong before any detailed research is needed.

We have one of those in the Championship’s Monday night fare, with the 7/5 available on QPR as they host woefully out of form Luton looking too good to be true.

Both Ali and I put it up as our best bet on the Not The Top 20 Betting Show, and over on our Telegram community the betting channel is bursting with QPR backers.

Having struggled early this season, Marti Cifuentes has finally turned the tables at QPR and their home form in particular has improved with four wins in a row having failed to win any of their first nine of the season.

The visitors are going through a rancid spell on their travels, losing their last nine away games and conceding a whopping 25 goals in the process. Things are getting toxic at Kenilworth Road, with the unlikely play-off winners from two seasons ago now staring down the genuine possibility of back-to-back relegations.

Rob Edwards is still their manager, and much of the good feeling created by him in that promotion season and their valiant attempt to stay in the Premier League has gone. A defeat here could well spell the end of his time at the club, but so long as he’s at the helm there seems little reason to think that toxicity will lift.

So why are QPR such a big price to continue their good home form against a side who barely mount a challenge at this level on the road?

I don’t really know.

It’s January so you wouldn’t think pre-season expectations of a recently relegated Premier League side would still be factored into the market, but if a team such as Oxford or Derby, with a similar points tally and xG ratio figure, came to West London then the price would undoubtedly be different.

Don’t look a gift horse in the mouth, keep it simple and adopt any other cliches you want that tell you just to get stuck into prices available for a home win here. The 7/5 looks all wrong and you have to think it’ll shorten up by kick-off on Monday night.

2pt QPR to win @ 7/5