GEORGE ELEK: Catch this rock solid defensive unit while you still can

Regular listeners to Not The Top 20 or readers of this column will be familiar with my love of the ‘win to nil’ market this season.

For those who are new here, in short I believe this season is a special case where there are a handful of teams (Leeds, Burnley, Birmingham) who are so dominant against some of their league rivals that the win to nil price just cannot reflect that and be short enough as it’s linked with the goal line.

This is especially the case with Leeds and Birmingham when they are playing at home, with the ‘win to nil’ bet regularly available at odds-against despite said teams facing sides who may not even muster a shot of any significance.

When Leeds hosted Plymouth Argyle back in November, they were 1/5 to win the game in 90 mins but Evs to win to nil. Not only did they win to nil, they won to nil shots, with Argyle not mustering a single effort on goal.

It’s Burnley and their nine goals conceded who are currently making the headlines in the Championship, and rightly so given they may transpire to fail to win automatic promotion despite keeping more clean sheets in a season that some sides will muster in the best part of a decade.

But in many ways, albeit more niche, Leeds’ defensive record at home is even more astounding. They’re conceding an average of just 5.25 shots TOTAL per 90. That’s way clear of Burnley on 8.13. If we take out set-pieces, this number drops to just 3.75.

Their non-penalty xG per 90 conceded at Elland Road is 0.22 which, in very binary terms, means we can expect them to concede a goal in every five games. Given they’ve scored in all but one home game this season, and average a league topping 1.78xG per 90 going forward, it doesn’t take a mathematician to work out that any model giving them less than a 50% chance of winning to nil is probably wrong.

But that’s been the price we’ve been getting all season about a bet that has copped in 11 of 16 home games, and realistically we’ve been unlucky not to have it at a better ratio than that (thanks Illan Meslier).

Sunderland’s visit will be tougher than most though. They scored three goals in their last away performance at Middlesbrough, and in Wilson Isidor and Enzo Le Fee they have two in-form attacking players who have absolutely no business playing football in a second tier.

All this means is that we’re getting a bigger price in my mind. Norwich, Sheffield Wednesday and Sheffield United are among the competent attacking sides who’ve been sent packing in recent weeks without so much as a sniff from Leeds’ rock solid defensive unit.

There is little reason to think Sunderland will fare much better despite their obvious qualities, and we can back this game to go like so many before it at 6/4. Leeds will be a Premier League side soon and then the Leeds to nil quirk will be a thing of the past. Catch it while you can.

Selection

2pt Leeds to nil @ 6/4