GEORGE ELEK: Best bet for League Two’s MNF Lancashire Derby

It’s unlikely that this week’s episode of ‘The EFL Does MNF’ will attract the global attention of the previous one, nor will David and Romeo Beckham be an available resource for the Sky cameras whenever the ball goes out of play, but in Fleetwood v Morecambe we have a game for the pure football purists. You can stick your Hollywood rivalry where the sun don’t shine, this is real English football. Or something like that.

These sides have made contrasting starts to this season in League Two, with Morecambe enduring a bizarre start of five consecutive 1-0 defeats. That run ended in equally strange fashion last weekend when the 10-man Shrimps were 3-1 down to Colchester at home, but somehow managed to score twice late on and get their first point on the board.

Their fans will tell you that their paltry points tally of one isn’t a fair reflection of their performances thus far, and that might be true to an extent, but their non-penalty xG ratio is 23rd of 24 and it’s hard to be overly optimistic about their survival chances, which is reflected in the 11/10 about them to occupy one of the two spots for relegation into non-league.

Fleetwood’s start is unspectacularly solid, but in my mind they are an EFL side that are maybe a fair bit better than they are being given credit for.

Their underlying numbers last season in League One suggested that they were a better side than their league position and were maybe unlucky to get relegated, and in Charlie Adam (remember him?) they look to have a Head Coach with a decent future judging by the performances under his tenure.

They’ve dropped points in three games this season, but these were against teams in Notts Co, Gillingham and AFC Wimbledon who currently occupy 1st, 2nd and 5th spots in the table. They were impressive last time out in a 3-2 win at Carlisle, and should really have too much for their opponents here.

With Morecambe currently ranking 22nd for xG for, and Fleetwood keeping clean sheets in both of their home league games so far, Derek Adams’ side might struggle to land a blow against their hosts, so the 8/5 about a Fleetwood win to nil looks a solid play in what could be a fairly one-sided affair.