GEORGE ELEK: Back this Championship home selection to come out best in goals bonanza

The international break is over, and while that sadly means the Premier League circus gets back underway, it also yields the return of the Greatest League In The Word: The Championship.

By the time Hull v Sunderland kicks off at 3pm we will have already been treated to Leeds v Sheffield United on Friday night and a full slate of Saturday fixtures. This dessert in the football feast should be a great game for the neutral, involving two sides who have seen plenty of goals in recent weeks. And you’ll only have to miss the first 20 mins of Liverpool v Chelsea.

In the first column I wrote for AK Bets, in tipping Over 2.5 goals in their opening day fixture against Bristol City (which upsettingly finished 1-1) I wrote; “For unders to be favourite here looks well off and, I reckon, getting anything like the 21/20 for Over 2.5 goals in Hull games this season will soon be a distant memory.”

Well here we are a couple of months later and Over 2.5 is 8/11, so I may have lost the battle but I’m claiming victory in the war. It took some time for Tim Walter’s attacking ideology to be reflected in the performances of his Hull side, but their recent games have been end-to-end and three of the last four have seen exactly four goals scored, while the other had five.

Hull were on the winning side in the first three, dispatching Stoke 3-1, Cardiff 4-1 and then QPR 3-1 before a 4-0 win at in-form Norwich brought them down to earth with a bump. This is a trend borne out in the underlying numbers too, with Hull averaging non-penalty 1.5xG for in these five games and 1.48xG against, putting them 2nd and 4th in these two metrics. Heart attack football is finally here and more goals have to be the cornerstone for any bet in this clash on Humberside.

Sunderland have made a rip-roaring start to life under new boss Regis Le Bris, but only avoided a third defeat in five games thanks to Leeds’ Ilan Meslier not reading a wrong’un that beat the outside edge and clipped the top of off before settling in the back of the net. That iconic late own goal means Sunderland head into this weekend top of the Championship and the Stadium of Light faithful are dreaming of a return to the top tier.

There are, however, a few red flags when it comes to their away form. Beaten at both Watford and Plymouth, 2-1 and 3-2, their two wins have come against Portsmouth and Cardiff, who currently occupy 23rd and 24th position in the table. The 2-2 draw with Leeds meant their record of not conceding a goal at home came to an end, but it’s quite the opposite on the road where they’ve shipped six goals in their four games.

There is a fair argument that Hull are their toughest opponent yet on the road, which says a fair amount about how their fixtures have fallen this season given their current mid-table berth, and they could well be too short as the 7/5 favourites here.

With Hull maybe overlooked and no reason to to ignore the forecast of goals, Hull and BTTS @ 15/4 looks the stand-out play for this accompaniment to your Sunday roast.

Selection:

1pt Hull and BTTS @ 15/4