By Tony Calvin - 10 November 2025
A very wet week in store all around this week. At the moment, anyway.
See below.
We will know the weekend entries later this afternoon but, as of Monday morning, there were 28 in the Paddy Power Gold Cup at Cheltenham on Saturday, and 33 in the Greatwood Hurdle on Sunday.
The five-day entries are very light in four of Cheltenham’s six races on Friday (fields of 11, 7, 9 and 15), so numbers will need to hold up at the overnight stage.
And all the weather sites currently agree that Friday will see torrential rain there.
Forecasts can change very quickly (as Wetherby’s has – that one has improved) but one site currently has 31mm landing, another 25mm+, at “racing’s natural amphitheatre” on Friday.
So it isn’t just the usual Norwegian worst-case scenario.
And there has been a lot of rain Tuesday into Wednesday (as at 8.15am on Wednesday morning the live rain gauge says they have had 14mm since Tuesday afternoon), with plenty more to come today, it seems.
Good ground horses need not apply this week, then (and certainly not in Ireland either, as it is equally grim there – indeed Fairyhouse today (Tuesday) has been abandoned).
There are only 16 are left in the Paddy Power (could have taken a maximum field of 20) – mind you, the race had only 15 and 14 runners in the last two renewals, and 14 in 2022 – and the weights will be going up 8lb after top weight Protektorat wasn’t confirmed.
Good news for stablemates, Panic Attack and Hoe Joly Smoke, who were out of the weights.
Others that have benefitted from the weights rising are: Vincenzo, Theatre Native, Conyers Hill, Es Perfecto, Hunter Legend and Issar Dairy (though the latter pair are still 2lb and 4lb wrong, respectively).
Jagwar and Il Ridoto vie for favouritism at around the [9/2] and 5s mark.
The Irish are responsible for five of the 16 in a race named in honour of Edward O’Grady.
Double entries for the race, and other Saturday ITV contests, are now below.
I’ve thrown in Sunday’s Greatwood Hurdle, too.
There are now 24 in that, with only one double-entry, so – whisper it quietly – we could get a maximum field of 20.
Celtic Dino, Alexei and Mirabad are 6s, 6s and 7s respectively.
Cheltenham have yet to update the ground after Monday’s rain, as this race preview goes live at 9.12am.
Strangely, it has dried out to good, good to soft in places as per the 10.07am update.
Just the nine entries in this Arkle trial and the two Irish representatives, July Flower and Relieved Of Duties, are the first and third favourites at [11/8] and 7s respectively at this stage.
For all its’ excellent prize money, Willie Mullins is not bothering with this three-day meeting.
A common theme of this column will be referencing the rain due and how that could shape which horses turn up.
Forecasts change, and often dramatically so, but at the moment, we have to be working on the basis of soft-cum-heavy ground.
Maybe just heavy.
First things first though, 10s chance Be Aware and 14s poke Jax Junior are entered elsewhere too, so I couldn’t touch those ante-post myself.
Indeed, it is also worth noting we haven’t got the Irish weekend entries yet (due this afternoon, normally around 1pm), so there could be others to come.
The possible/probable Friday ground would have to be a concern for Be Aware, impressive on his chasing debut at Stratford – one outfit has him as low as 4s – anyway and Jax Junior’s best form has come on good and good to soft.
The going may also be a concern for Breaking Cover, second at Wincanton on Saturday, Relieved Of Duties and Shakeyatailfeather.
So, unfortunately, there is obvious potential for this 75k race to cut up, as is often the case for novices’ chases.
But due to it being too deep, not too quick, this time.
The courses and BHA can’t catch a break, it seems. Hopefully a happy ground medium will materialise here.
I am not surprised that effectively only four firms have priced it up then, though there is no shock that Henry De Bromhead’s mare July Flower is the favourite.
A talented Grade 3-winning hurdler, with the usual heavy ground form in France, she impressed on her chasing debut over 2m3f at Limerick.
Her trainer told the Racing Post this week:
“She was electric in a mares’ beginners’ chase the other day at Limerick. We were delighted with her. She seemed to love jumping fences. I’m starting to wonder if I got her trip slightly wrong – I’d say she might be a two-mile to two-and-a-half type, rather than two-and-a-half up to three miles. She seemed to really enjoy being ridden positively. She’ll have entries in the Arkle Trial at Cheltenham, the two-mile novice chase at Punchestown the following week and the Drinmore. We’ll see which one suits best. ”
Burdett Road is the [5/2] second favourite and the Champion Hurdle runner-up (yes, I know) is the most talented horse in the line-up, and race-fit for his chasing debut.
I have no idea how well, or otherwise, he has jumped at home (and we wouldn’t be told if it was poorly, anyway) but he is a dual soft-ground winner and he has to be respected, for all that making your debut over fences around Cheltenham is a fair old test.
The 12s chance Brentford Hope has also to be considered on his chasing debut, purely on the basis that he will love it, absolutely love it, if all of the forecast rain arrives (the Friday rain is due to start in the early hours, as it stands, and stay all day and into Saturday morning).
But, again, we have no idea of how he has jumped over fences at home, and this can be a daunting test for a novice first time up around here.
Basically, the market probably has this right in favouring July Flower (for all the above doubts), with 16s chance Stencil, who I seem to remember being classed as a chasing type last season, the dangerous floater. I wouldn’t stick my neck out and lay that one at 16s, available with three firms (though effectively one), that is for sure.
The 4yo, a winner on heavy in France (Timeform agreed), shaped very well behind East India Dock here last January before disappointing as an [11/4] chance in the Fred Winter.
I have no idea of running plans, or his chasing prowess, but Harry Cobden is now jocked up and that 16s quote is maybe asking for trouble.
If you can get a score on, that is, before it is cut…
It soon went to 12s in a matter of minutes.
If Matata, unproven at this 2m4f trip, runs in the Shloer on Friday, then the weights will go up 9lb here.
I am looking at this race next but the aforementioned Matata and Theatre Native could go elsewhere.
Matata has been confirmed for the Shloer.
It doesn’t look a great renewal, certainly not for a 160k pot, on first inspection.
I think ante-post punters need to tread carefully ahead of this current weather forecast.
I also tend to think this market has been priced up pretty accurately, with [9/2] Jagwar and 5s Il Ridoto obvious favourites, though maybe the latter could do with less rain than is forecast (mind you, most could).
The [9/2] about Jagwar could be coming under pressure on Tuesday morning by the looks of it.
The market has more than caught up with the excellent Sam Thomas’ ability to ready one for a big pot after a break, which explains why his Vicenzo ranges between 5s and [13/2], and it is easy to see the Dan Skelton bandwagon rolling on here.
He intends to run all of his three in this, with Panic Attack seemingly his number one at 7s.
You can see all of the four market leaders winning (no, not in a four-way dead-heat), which is not exactly helpful, especially as they are priced accordingly.
Maybe Venetia Williams’ Hunter Legend is the interesting outsider at 25s, for all he is currently 2lb out of the handicap and lacks experience around here.
But he will love the expected conditions, and a light weight could be beneficial if it gets very down and very dirty.
This is a very big step up, class-wise, but he won easily in a decent time at Bangor the last time we saw him in April (which was a 0-120, which he won off 122) and he is on the up.
If you wanted a bet at this stage, he’d probably be the one I’d look at, but he could easily be outclassed against this much higher grade of opposition – and in a higher-tempo race – and that 25s is only available in two spots (20s and 16s being the more widely available odds).
Matata going for the Shloer increases his chance (if he runs) .
These are double-entered: C’Est Different, Good Look Charm, Indiana Jones, Lucky Manifest, Marlacoo, Prince Zaltar, Priory Park, Royal Infantry and Vee Dancer.
A tricky enough race to price up then, even before factoring in the weather.
I am surprised good ground horse Long Draw is the favourite at a general [7/2] and 4s, and main market rival Supremely West, a big eyecatcher when third in a Pertemps qualifier here last month on his debut for Skelton – the handicapper saw it too, as he raised him 1lb despite being beaten 5 1/4 lengths – is the one with the winning heavy ground form.
I just wonder whether they have their eye on the 100k Haydock handicap hurdle a week on Saturday for Supremely West, though (this is worth just 35k), but maybe they will look to take this en route.
He has a huge chance if running, that is for sure. He is currently [11/2] tops, and 5s elsewhere.
Oh, to have Skelton’s card – he also has Royal Infantry (entered in the 3.30pm as well) and Prince Zaltar (also has an entry on Friday, as well as the Haydock race on November 22) in this handicap – as this is a horse that could easily be another Doyen Quest if running.
That one won this race at [5/4] last season, against 11 rivals, after being smashed right up.
This could be Take Two if he goes.
These are double-entered: As Legends Have It, Aurea Fortuna, Bowensonfire, C’est Different, De Temps En Temps, Give Him A Chance, Holloway Queen, Klass Langy, Lavender Hill Mob, Luttrell Lad, Party Vibes (due to run at Bangor on Wednesday), Priory Park, Royal Infantry, Scorsese and Vee Dancer.
This isn’t a race which has you itching to get involved in, and it easily resisted until we see the final field on Thursday.
I’ll leave the two ITV races here alone, then; most bookmakers have too, understandably.
The ground is probably harder to call for Cheltenham on Sunday – if the forecast is right.
We all know how quickly Cheltenham dries out – as it seemingly did overnight into Tuesday – and the rain is expected to end around about midday on Saturday.
Anyway, with only Bowensonfire double-entered at the moment, I am half-expecting a full field of 20 for this 100k pot.
At least one firm have acknowledged that may be the case by going [7/1] co-favourites of three at this stage – Alexei, Celtic Dino and Mirabad – so fair play to them.
Of those, top weight Celtic Dino could certainly do without the currently predicted Friday deluge – I’d hold fire on him myself – and the same could go for the horse he beat in the Welsh Champion Hurdle (and who won heavily backed at Ascot next time) , Alexei.
Mirabad has form in deep ground in France, and he is making his debut for the formidable Skelton yard. He’d be my pick of the market leaders at this stage.
If they get in, then Serious Challenge and Cormier would interest me most at this stage. The former needs one to come out, and bottom weight Cormier four.
Jonathan Burke is jocked up on Serious Challenge and he shaped well enough on his return over 2m4f at Aintree (though he certainly didn’t pull up any trees) last month, for which he was dropped 1lb.
His chance here probably rests on two strands of form.
Firstly, his 9-length defeat of the aforementioned Bowensonfire on heavy ground over 2m at Ayr last February, and his general Flat form, most of which is on better going.
He was rated 102 when with Jim Bolger, which suggests his hurdles mark of 127 is highly exploitable if they can get him right, and this is a horse who handles good as well as deep going, so the weather can probably do what it likes for him.
The generally available 20s is very fair.
It has been a long while since Cormier won the Morebattle off a mark of 134 in March 2022 but this course winner is down to 121 now, and comes here after a recent, comprehensive win over 1m6f on the Flat at Nottingham (albeit off a mark of just 68) last month.
With the Brian Ellison yard in good form, I wouldn’t like to have laid his 9yo at a general 33s if he gets in.
They’d be my two against the field at this stage if you wanted an interest; I wouldn’t blame you for sitting tight and seeing what the weather does, though.
And how that forecast changes, for the better or worse, through the week.
Going: Good to soft, good in places
Going stick: 6.1, Wednesday 2.30pm
Wednesday afternoon course update: 5mm on Monday and 5mm Tuesday evening. 10mm during the day on Wednesday. Thursday forecast to be dry during the day then a heavy band of rain moves in overnight into Friday and continues through the day (20mm+).
Weather (latest yr.no forecast): 4.4mm late on Thursday; 38mm Friday; 3.7mm Saturday; Dry Sunday
Watering: Last watering on the Round Course Friday 7th.
Going: Good to soft, good in places
Going stick: 5.1, Wednesday
Wednesday afternoon morning course update: 7mm rain during Monday / overnight into Tuesday. 8mm rain overnight into Wednesday. The outlook for remains unsettled with rain forecast for Wednesday evening overnight into Thursday (8mm) and then again overnight Friday into Saturday (10mm), then settled on Saturday PM.
Weather (yr.no latest): 9.5mm Wednesday; 1.5mm Thursday; 12mm Friday; 5mm Saturday
Going: Good to soft
Going stick: 5.8, Monday 8am
Moisture meter reading: 56.0%
Wednesday morning course update: Dry 24hrs. (21mm since racing on 07/11/25). Wednesday mainly dry. Thursday dry a.m. before rain p.m. and through Friday likely > 12mm. Saturday and Sunday look mainly dry in most forecasts. 10°c – 15°c
Weather (yr.no latest): 6.2mm Thursday; 16mm Friday
1.45pm Cheltenham: Jax Junior
2.20pm Cheltenham: Matata (due to run on Friday), Theatre Native
2.55pm Cheltenham: C’Est Different, Good Look Charm, Indiana Jones, Lucky Manifest (due to run on Friday), Marlacoo (due to run on Friday), Prince Zaltar, Priory Park (due to run on Friday), Royal Infantry, Vee Dancer
3.10pm Wetherby: Bespoke Tailor, Chattamento, Gaelic Pride, Get On George, Hold The Serve, King’s Champion (due to run on Thursday), Louis Veron, Mr Ramoon, Myrighthandman, Orderoftheday (due to run on Wednesday), Zamek
3.30pm Cheltenham: As Legends Have It (due to run on Friday), Aurea Fortuna, Bowensonfire, C’est Different, Holloway Queen, Klass Langy, Lavender Hill Mob, Luttrell Lad (due to run on Friday), Party Vibes (due to run at Bangor on Wednesday), Priory Park (due to run on Friday), Royal Infantry, Scorsese, Vee Dancer
3.43pm Wetherby: Cabhfuilfunghi, Dangerous Touch (due to run on Tuesday), Homme Public, William Of York
3.30pm Cheltenham Sunday (Greatwood Hurdle): Bowensonfire
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