TONY CALVIN: SATURDAY’s 10 ITV races now analysed – there is a dangerous, unexposed floater at 16s at Cheltenham

IT looks like all of the three ITV tracks have all missed the worst of the forecast rainfall, as at 7.25am on Thursday.

 

1.10pm Cheltenham – the natural amphitheatre could be heading towards soft – and then some?

The ground may well ride soft at Cheltenham on Friday, with more plenty more rain due on well-watered ground (see below).

And maybe a tad deeper if the upper end of the current forecasts lands.

They are now good to soft, good in places, after 18mm on Sunday and Monday, and even the course are saying they could get another 15-20mm on Wednesday evening into Thursday morning. Fair play to the track for flagging that possibility on Tuesday morning.

Yellow rain warnings are in place on Thursday.

So trainers may be changing their running plans accordingly, though it does dry very quickly here and what happens after any midweek rain could be rectified pretty speedily ground-wise.

These forecasts can change dramatically from day to day, as they have done in the last 24 hours.

So keep an eye out for changes throughout Wednesday as the nasty weather sweeps in.

Yr.no have changed their Thursday rainfall to 17mm to tally up with earlier Cheltenham possible forecast (due to start around 8pm tonight)

Also be careful if betting ante-post at Cheltenham this week as a lot of horses have options over three days, and obviously we will get Friday confirmations at 10am on Wednesday.

Not that far away.

Anyway, the following are double-entered this week, so I’d steer clear of them, until we know where they are heading, if anywhere: All The Glory, Chance Another One, Crest Of Fortune, Double Powerful, Kdeux Saint Fray, Minella Missile and True Testimony.

I’m not surprised only four bookmaking outfits have priced this up (some are only betting ¼ 1,2,3 in this 21-strong 2m4f novices’ handicap chase, too) and they have four horses vying for favouritism between the 7s and 8s marks; Chance Another One, Double Powerful, Crest Of Fortune and Lightning Flash.

Three of those could go elsewhere this weekend, so I am rather surprised they head the market (Lightning Flash having just this option).

Not a race that appeals at the moment, to put it mildly.

1.30pm Doncaster – looking like heavy, heavy, heavy, here, Neil

We have 16 entries for this 0-105 5f handicap, and it is a fair assumption that we will be racing on heavy (and second-day) ground on Saturday, even though the Thursday deluge of 20mm+ has currently become a relative trickle at 4mm.

The double-entered horses are Annaf, Germanic, Kullazain, Smart Vision, Solar Aclaim and Sophia’s Starlight, with the latter having won at Pontefract on Monday.

Again, only four bookmaking operations have priced this up as at 9.30am on Tuesday – the layers’ appetite for pricing up early midweek is disappearing, it seems, and I don’t blame them – and they make Rosario their [7/2] and [4/1] market leader.

It is a very defensively priced-up handicap, as a result – one outfit are betting [7/2], [9/2], 6s. 6s, 6s, 8s, 8s, 8s about their first eight in the betting in a race that has attracted 16 runners at the five-day stage, which effectively says come back on Thursday morning, guys and gals – so let’s move on.

1.45pm Cheltenham – Shut out the Festival noise and enjoy the sport week-by-week

I guess I am not alone in being disillusioned by all this Cheltenham Festival nonsense from August onwards, but I am going to shut out the ante-post noise (does anyone truly really believe those markets offer any value these days, for all they provide cheap copy?) and try to enjoy the National Hunt season week-by-week.

This March obsession is a tiresome negative/narrative the sport can well do without.

I used to love betting on novices’ hurdles back in the day – unfortunately each-way is rarely a pleasure now – and hopefully we get a field of eight-plus here on the day for this 3m contest, which has attracted 15 at the five-day stage.

Quite a few firms have shown no interest in pricing this race up as at 10.30am on Tuesday – and, once again some of those who have are doing no-one anyone any favours by betting 2s, 4s and 4s their first three in the market – so it is hard to warm to, betting-wise, at the moment.

Pour Les Filles, trained by the King Of Far Hills Gordon Elliott (who also has Kenisa Sport in here), heads the market at a top-priced 3s and has a leading chance but this is a pretty deep race – at the moment.

The maiden Catchintsavo would have been interesting at 7s in a place had he not had a Sunday entry (he was taken out of a Fontwell race on Thursday this morning, and the stable also has Easy Love in this), which leads me to list those with double entries: Catchintsavo, Conman John, Inishcorker, Kenisa Sport, Minella Supreme and Sporting Glance.

Some of those are priced up pretty short, too; indeed Minella Supreme, who holds a Friday Cheltenham entry, is the 5s second favourite.

Miss Goldfire is a fair 20s poke at the moment as she holds decent form and time claims, and has no other options this week.

Remember, the ground has changed/is changing though, and she thrived on decent going in the Spring.

She could well be a no-show, perhaps one of many.

2.05pm Doncaster – a mess of a Group 1 at the moment

Why would anyone price this up?

And now Benvenuto Cellini is now out to 7/1 (for tiny sums)…

With Aidan O’Brien responsible for nine of the 13 in here, bookmakers must be very confident in their Ballydoyle “sources” to be able to price this up.

I wouldn’t be going anywhere near it if I were a bookmaker.

Perhaps some let people connected to the yard have a bet to win £1k or so to get a mark (one big firm actually still does this on low-level midweek racing to some lucky souls) or just track the illiquid exchange market with a big margin added, I don’t know.

But how can you have a strong laying opinion here, especially on worsening ground?

O’Brien’s Benvenuto Cellini ranges from [4/6] to [4/9], so good luck if you are backing that one. As I said on Monday (see below), I wouldn’t be interested in backing him at [4/6] to run.

No 2yo has impressed me more than his stablemate, Zetland winner Pierre Bonnard, this season – “a nice physical” too… – but he is available at 10s, and [29.0] for pennies on Betfair, so is he even being considered as a runner by The Lads?

Put it this way, if he runs, he could well be favourite – especially, of course, if the current jolly doesn’t.

Flip-flopping favs?

The same applies to impressive Beresford winner Hawk Mountain (who has been the “big” mover on Tuesday afternoon, as the favourite drifts).

It’s just a mess of a race at the moment, with O’Brien able to pick his winner after their main midweek work (which I think is normally on Wednesdays).

Actually, maybe they work on Tuesdays now and Hawk Mountain has shone….

Benvenuto Cellini is out [5/4] now and 3.7 on Betfair (as at 9am Wednesday) – and seemingly set to get bigger – with Hawk Mountain into just 2s (last traded price 2.8 on Betfair).

A very lightly-traded market (and a mere oner could dramatically change things), but even so.

Benvenuto Cellini is out to 7.2 at 10.30am, and who knows if he is going to run/be confirmed tomorrow morning?

Someone doesn’t think so…

2.20pm Cheltenham – no real interest from the layers again here at the moment

This 100k 3m1f handicap chase has attracted a healthy 25 entries.

The following are double entered at the moment: Anyway, Backmersackme, Dunboyne, Fascile Mode, Inch House, Lisnamult Lad, Minella Blueway, Moon D’Orange and Pied Piper.

Seventeen bookmakers on the Oddschecker grid have opted not to price this up as at 11.15am on Tuesday and the betting is all around the place for those who have.

For example, Lisnamult Lad is 5s with one mob, and 12s with another. He is also in the Pertemps qualifier at 2.55pm.

Rock My Way at 7s in places looks okay (though Joe Tizzard also has The Changing Man in here) but I am not betting myself, so I am not going to throw around loose suggestions.

Hyland is a general 6s chance, and favourite with some, but I’d be surprised if he ran if the worst of the forecast rain lands.

Let’s see what the Irish, who have won three of the last four renewals, bring over and go from there.

2.40pm Doncaster – Rapid Force has a fair bit to prove here

The same bookmakers are sitting this one out at the moment – i.e. most – but Charlie Appleby’s Rapid Force ranges from [11/10] to [6/4] by those who have priced it up.

For all he won well on his debut at Kempton, he is surely being priced up on connections alone in this – it was a three-runner race and he didn’t post any figures of note, unless the sectionals boys know different – and I’d be looking elsewhere at this stage if you want a bet and have an account with the books who have gone up on the race.

Put it this way, if I was a billion-plus bookmaking organisation, I’d be happy to lay 2s at the five-day and have the field running for me at [1/2], as plenty have solid form in soft ground and the favourite may not even turn up in the deep going.

The 3s second favourite Aspect Island has form in it, likewise does 6s poke Spanish Waltz (this one has another option, though), as well as a few others with credible chances of landing this 2yo 6f Listed race.

The double-entered horses are: Gentle George, Gold Queen Kindly, Spanish Waltz and Wateen.

2.55pm Cheltenham – You are in business if on a runner here – especially if it is trying….

There are 28 entries in this Pertemps qualifier, in a race that can take 20 on the day (you never know but maybe four or so of those may actually be trying to win….).

It is predictably 7s the field if you shop around, and five horses are priced in single figures.

The participation of Gowel Road could be important to this race as the weights will go up 8lb if he doesn’t take up the engagement , for all only three are currently out of the handicap (though Dan Skelton’s Prince Zaltar, who ranges from 7s to 10s, is one of those).

Prince Zaltar is one of a raft of double-entered horses in here though.

They are: Chance Another One, Doc McCoy, Dunboyne, Electric Mason, Fascile Mode, Icare Allen, Knockanore, Lihyan, Lisnamult Lad, Montecam, Moon D’Orange, Patriotik, Prince Zaltar, Spike Jones, Sporting Ace, Surrey Quest and Thanksforthehelp.

Tread carefully here, in addition to that Wednesday night-Thursday morning forecast rain (the amount forecast by the course at least).

And some of the Irish only enter these handicaps to get an early confirmation of their UK marks.

3.10pm Newbury  – Cherche the confirmed slop merchants, and we are left with one from seven…

Just the seven five-day entries for the 55k Group 3 Horris Hill – I can still hear those who moaned about the new 250k 2yo race at Ascot last Saturday still chuntering away about the abuse of the Pattern– and one of those, Boling Point, has the option of running off 90 in a Doncaster nursery at the weekend.

Unless the Tuesday-Thursday forecast is badly wrong, I think we are probably looking at heavy at Newbury – it is currently soft, good to soft in places, there now after 13mm+ on Monday – so it is a case of cherche the slop merchants.

Yr.no have just upgraded their Wednesday-Thursday rainfall to 39mm, which will prompt the course to inspect if it lands (amounts vary massively though)

The course are also saying 20-30mm.

And that leaves us with a short-list of one: Pandemonium, who is two from two, both with dig.

And Timeform agreed with the official going description of soft when he won at Yarmouth on his debut.

After his win on good to soft at Redcar at the start of the month, connections said:

“We’ve always liked Pandemonium, ever since we saw him at the sales. Today was about giving him a little bit more experience and match practice. Going to the track, going through the gate, all those things are important and we wanted to give him another run in a novice before he goes into deeper company.

“If the horse is well and we’re happy with him we’ll look at the Horris Hill at Newbury in a couple of weeks. He obviously goes on the soft ground and he’s very much a horse to look forward to for next year.”

He clearly has to improve a lot to beat the 107-rated Time To Turn, but, if forced, I’d rather back him at 3s than the Godolphin form horse at [6/4] in the likely conditions.

The stable won this with a similar sort in Knight on heavy ground in 2022, a horse who also won on his debut at Yarmouth.

Unfortunately not the same race for trends’ groupies.

3.30pm – Loriko is a very dangerous floater at 16s in here

As with the Horris Hill, just the seven in here at the five-day stage, and Hamlet’s Night (maybe better suited to good ground) and Sir Galahad (jocked up in a handicap on Friday, and confirmed for that on Wednesday morning) could rock up at Cheltenham 24 hours earlier.

I’ve no issue with the 143-rated Give It To Me OJ being priced up at evens – he is unbeaten on soft ground – though I think it is fair to say the ex-French 16s chance Loriko is probably better than he showed at Uttoxeter last time. And that could have been a decent maiden hurdle, too.

I wouldn’t like to be laying that dangerous floater at double-figures myself, as the recent rain and stiffer track are being taken as positives.

Timeform had all his three runs in France as having come on soft ground.

Trainer Dan Skelton (still a part-owner in the horse) did a recent stable tour with the Sporting Life, and he didn’t mention this one – always a good sign in my book.

If you wanted a speculative tenner on one for Saturday (and I have no idea if he is an intended runner, though Harry is currently jocked up) then perhaps Loriko is the one at 16s, available with seven firms.

It is not a race that the bookmakers can probably trade with any confidence, but 16s looks a fair, small-stakes, risk to reward to me, as he doesn’t look a handicap project (as it stands anyway, after just two hurdle runs), being pitched in here off levels against horses rated as high as 143.

Unless it is a spin around looking for a distant third and an easy five bags or so.

He is into 12s as at 9am on Wednesday.

3.45pm Newbury – Hamish will get his ground

Layfayette is due to run at the Curragh today (Tuesday) but, other than that, nothing else has alternative options this week and we currently have 15 in here.

It looks a decent race and it is no surprise to see the mudlover Hamish top the betting at 3s.

I’ll see what the final field brings us.

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MONDAY SCENE-SETTER

The good news is that we won’t be requiring watering details from ARC this week, as Doncaster is set to be a proper mudbath if that Thursday forecast is only half right – it may be only a sixth right now as it has been downgraded to just 6mm, but we have been down this yo-yo forecast route before – and Cheltenham have been watering for months in the lead-up to this meeting (see below) and now face a wettish week.

Newbury is heading towards heavy, too.

Clerk of the course Jon Pullin told the Racing Post:

“We’re currently good ground. We’re in a great place at the moment. We’ve been watering since August and continued it through with the dry spell we’ve had. We backed off the watering and just did some selective watering on Friday, knowing we’ve got rain on Sunday and Monday.”

On Monday morning, there were 25 in the Group 1 Futurity Stakes at Doncaster on Saturday, of which Aidan O’Brien had 12.

We wait to see how many have confirmed.

The answer is 13, with O’Brien having nine, which kills ante-post betting, stone dead.

The four that aren’t his are Cape Orator (Ralph Beckett), Item (Andrew Balding), Oxagon (John and Thady Gosden) and Rochfortbridge (Adrian Keatley), with the latter due to run at Pontefract today (Monday).

Ballydoyle’s Benvenuto Cellini is priced up between [4/6] and [1/2] but good luck if you are taking odds-on quotes, given the stable’s options and the likely ground. I wouldn’t be that interested in taking [4/6] about him running.

There are just seven in the Horris Hill at Newbury (O’Brien has none).

Back with copy later; probably late Tuesday morning/early Tuesday afternoon after I’ve had a look.

We also have ITV racing on Friday and Sunday.

 

CHELTENHAM (Saturday details below – they also race on ITV on Friday )

GOING – Good to soft (course has got away with just 4,5mm up to 6.30am)

GOING STICK: 6.2 (Wednesday 3pm)

(2m4f races will be run on the Round Course)

Rails: Chase +4y; Hurdle +2y

• Race 1: Race distance is now +36y to 2m 4f 80y
• Race 2: Race distance is now +24y to 3m 12y
• Race 3: Race distance is now +48y to 3m 1f 48y
• Race 4: Race distance is now +24y to 3m 12y
• Race 5: Race distance is now +12y to 2m 99y
• Race 6: Race distance is now +48y to 3m 1f 48y
• Race 7: Race distance is now +12y to 2m 99y

Thursday morning course update: 10mm rain on Sunday and 8mm on Monday. Dry on Tuesday and through the day on Wednesday. 4.5mm overnight (to 06:30). Drizzle and light showers possible on Thursday morning (1-2mm) with a moderate breeze. Showers possible on Friday (1-2mm).

Weather: 4mm Thursday; 2mm Friday; 0.4mm Saturday

Watering: Watering commenced in August (for grass recovery) and continued to w/c 13th October. Selective watering finished on Friday (17th).

 

DONCASTER (Saturday details below – they also race on ITV on Friday )

GOING – Heavy

GOING STICK: 4.4, Thursday 7.30am

Soil Moisture 53.1%

Rails: Round Course – Fresh ground which is 7yds off the innermost line for all round races

Stalls: Straight – Centre; Round – Inner

Thursday morning course update: 8mm rain Sunday. 0.2mm Monday 1.4mm Tuesday 0.4mm Wednesday 6.4mm this morning so far but rain has eased and worst of weather looks to have passed. Mainly dry this afternoon – 11C Friday – mainly dry with sunny spells and a stiff westerly breeze. Small chance of showers Friday evening but nothing serious. 12C Saturday – mainly dry with sunny spells and a stiff westerly breeze – 10C. Track verti-drained since St Leger Festival

Weather: 0.5mm Thursday, 1.1mm Friday, 2.4mm Saturday

 

NEWBURY (Saturday details below – they also race on Friday but not on ITV)

GOING – Soft

GOING STICK: 4.5, Wednesday 6am

Soil Moisture 61.5%

• Race 1: Race distance is now +14y to 1m 4f 14y

• Race 5: Race distance is now +14y to 1m 4f 14y

• Race 6: Race distance is now +6y to 1m 7y

• Race 7: Race distance is now +14y to 1m 2f 14y

Thursday morning course update: 10mm rain overnight. Forecast: blustery day, a further 2-5mm rain expected. Sunshine & a few light showers Friday & Saturday with temperatures dropping to highs of 10C for racing.

Weather : 3.5mm Thursday

 

SATURDAY’S DOUBLE ENTRIES (as at Tuesday)

1.10pm Cheltenham : All The Glory, Chance Another One, Crest Of Fortune, Double Powerful, Kdeux Saint Fray, Minella Missile (due to run on Friday), True Testimony

1.30pm Doncaster : Annaf, Germanic, Kullazain, Smart Vision, Solar Aclaim, Sophia’s Starlight (won at Pontefract on Monday and confirmed to run on Friday)

1.45pm Cheltenham : Catchintsavo, Conman John, Inishcorker, Kenisa Sport, Minella Supreme, Sporting Glance (due to run on Friday)

2.05pm Doncaster : Rochfortbridge finished second at Pontefract on Monday

2.20pm Cheltenham : Anyway, Backmersackme, Dunboyne, Fascile Mode, Inch House, Lisnamult Lad, Minella Blueway, Moon D’Orange, Pied Piper

2.40pm Doncaster: Gentle George, Gold Queen Kindly, Spanish Waltz, Wateen

2.55pm Cheltenham : Chance Another One, Doc McCoy, Dunboyne, Electric Mason, Fascile Mode, Icare Allen, Knockanore, Lihyan, Lisnamult Lad, Montecam, Moon D’Orange, Patriotik, Prince Zaltar, Spike Jones, Sporting Ace, Surrey Quest, Thanksforthehelp

3.10pm Newbury : Boiling Over

3.30pm Cheltenham :  Sir Galahad (due to run on Friday)

3.45pm Newbury: Layfayette (ran at the Curragh on Tuesday)