By Tony Calvin - 23 September 2025
It is becoming increasingly apparent, to me anyway, that the wiser course of action is to wait until the day-of-race markets, and largely leave the ante-post business alone.
Of course, there will be occasions when longer-range investments are fully justified, and you can land on a real chest-puffing shortener, but the way bookmakers operate these days means it is more than likely you will get better prices and enhanced place terms on the day (books are quarter the odds 1,2,3,4 now on the Cambridgeshire).
And you will also be able to get more money on, as ante-post markets are obviously traded far more carefully, shall we say.
If you can even access the above trio of betting circumstances, that is.
This is something we cannot be blasé about. Having live accounts and being able to get on, at requested sums (or even much reduced, reasonable ones), is becoming far, far harder for a multitude of reasons.
The time has long since passed when tipsters could recommend a bet at a price and assume most could access it; they know that, too.
If I lost my one remaining account, I’d probably pack up the sport totally. Why would you bother if you can’t bet without jumping through multiple hoops?
And there is also the side-issue of how the markets are so volatile now with many early midweek favourites going for a massive walk on the day.
Not to mention the much-discussed draw discussions/bias in big fields, which we hopefully will get a better handle on at Newmarket on Thursday and Friday (there are three 1m races on Thursday, and there is a 1m1f handicap at 4.45pm on Friday, which currently has 28 entries).
By the way, excuse my mini-rant on Ayr in the weekend racing review of Monday’s The Racing Room podcast – you’ll find the pod link in my Twitter bio, among other places – but I cannot forgive the clerk taking readings across the course last week and not telling the betting public or detailing them on the BHA site.
Why weren’t Racing TV and ITV all over this? The main betting discussion at the meeting was where you wanted to be drawn in the big-field sprint handicaps, after all.
This is meant to be a serious sport, even if it is in their interest that we all lose.
Anyway, I’m looking solely at the Cambridgeshire, always billed as one of the bigger Flat autumn betting heats, in this fresh ante-post piece.
Firstly, let’s deal with the numbers and the facts.
There were 82 in the race on Monday morning, but we are now down to 38 entries for a race that can take 35 runners on the day, and there are 12 horses doubly entered.
They are: Arisaig, Mr Baloo, Silver Sword, Take Heart, Mister Winston, Divine Knight, Earl Of Rochester, Dutch Decoy, Urban Sprawl, Sir Paul Ramsey, Desperate Dan and Whathappensinvegas.
Arisaig and Mr Baloo have been confirmed for races on Friday.
You’d imagine most of the dozen were given alternative options this week in case they were balloted out of this on Thursday morning, but that possibility has clearly subsided.
We may yet get a full field, though that is unlikely.
The ground is currently good, good to firm in places, with a largely dry forecast all week, and the track are watering to the tune of 4mm today (Tuesday).
The following horses are well/badly-in: Treble Tee (+4), Mr Swivell (+3), Ebt’s Guard (+2), Mr Baloo (-1), Divine Knight (-1), Sir Paul Ramsey (-1) ,
To the market then, in which Treble Tee heads the betting at [6/1] in two places and 5s across the board elsewhere after a well-backed and impressive 2 ¾-length defeat of Cash at Doncaster last time.
He has a lot going for him, other than being 4lb well-in under his 4lb penalty, as a very lightly-raced horse (he has had just the six starts) who is a course winner on a big upwards trajectory.
He has never raced over 1m1f before and this will be a big field in which the draw could be crucial – the run of high-drawn winners was busted by Liberty Lane dancing in from trap four last season – but he has a hugely likeable profile.
As does the [8/1] second favourite Fifth Column in two places.
Take out his fifth at Goodwood, on probably unfavoured soft ground, and his runs this season read as follows: four wins and a seventh in the Brittania, and he won his race down the middle in that defeat at Royal Ascot.
He went up 5lb for his narrow win at York last time (where he was smashed off the boards) but he posted impressive closing sectionals there and John Gosden is no stranger to winning this race with future Group winners for the Godolphin owner.
Indeed, he took this with Halling in those iconic red and white Sheikh Mohammed colours in 1994 off a mark of just 93, and that horse went on to win the Eclipse and Juddmonte the following year.
It is not ideal trying to find a winner of this race at a big price when you have two such strong contenders astriding the market, though ones that have just been cut to [11/2] and 7s, too, further eradicating their attractiveness at this point.
But I’ll give it a go.
I have two on my mind at 66s and 16s, both available with AKBets.
Now, I appreciate it is often the lazy route which leads you to support horses you are familiar with and have backed recently, but the 66s about Savvy Victory does appeal, for all he may be one worth waiting with until he is confirmed a runner on Thursday morning and backing him then.
Ill personally go half and half here, as I will explain.
He certainly doesn’t have the sexy vibe of others as a 6yo in seemingly modest form, and one still rated a relatively lofty 101, so he is an unlikely shortener (or to any significant degree anyway).
But I have backed him at big prices on the last two occasions and I thought he ran a lot better than a 6 ¾-length seventh of 12 at Sandown last time suggested, and I was getting very hopeful at one point as he cruised up, and he was tanking along, to take the lead 2f out.
That run soon petered out, though.
Perhaps Colin Keane, still getting to know the UK tracks, went too early; perhaps he wasn’t on the best part of the track ground-wise; perhaps it was simply too soft for him; or perhaps it was the combination of 1m2f and testing going on a stiff course that found him out.
Whatever the reason, I took that as proof (of sorts) that he is no longer past it as a 6yo (and 6yos have won this race in 2023 and 2021, off marks in the 100s) and I can see a strongly-run 1m1f race on decent ground suiting him.
His mark of 101 is 3lb lower than his last winning effort in December and he has decent previous in this race, having finished a 4-length fifth of 28 in the 2022 renewal. He also finished third in a Feilden here that year.
I have backed him to small sums (£20 each way if you must know) and I will press up more fully if and when he is confirmed on Thursday morning. You’d hope he was an intended runner but I don’t know for sure (he isn’t jocked up yet, if that means anything – he is now, with 5lb claimer Jack Callan booked).
Oh, and I should mention that the form of the Sean Woods yard, going into Tuesday’s racing, could have been much better, though they have had a few run well enough in defeat recently.
So it was good to see him net a 10-1 winner, Savvy Stellar, in a three-runner race in the 4.25pm at Southwell today. That horse actually runs in the same colours as Savvy Victory.
Real Gain has a sexier profile, which is why he the 20s was taken about him yesterday and he is now a general 16s.
He won over course and distance here in September 2023, scooting in by 5 ½ lengths off a mark of 91, and he looks to be on an attractive enough mark of 95.
He was a huge early drifter on his belated reappearance at Goodwood last month, before being a big late on-the-show mover from 25s to 12s, and he ran a screamer to finish a 2-length third in that 15-runner handicap on officially soft ground (Timeform called it good).
He has to raise his game here off the same mark but he looks a horse who is likely to shorten, I imagine.
If he runs.
This will be his 10th start (if lining up, as he is presumably a delicate horse) and there is surely more in the tank.
He was actually one of the market leaders for this race last season before Richard Hughes pulled him out as he wasn’t happy with him.
Actually, you may want to consider holding fire on him until we hit the day-of-race, money-back market for non-runners after 10am on Thursday.
Indeed, before his run at Goodwood, Richard Brown, adviser to owners Wathnan Racing, said: “Real Gain has had some niggly issues which have kept him off the track for over a year but Richard [Hughes, trainer] reports him to be working very well. Any rain that falls will be a huge help to him.”
So maybe they are worried about the ground, though it was good to firm (Timeform agreed) when he won here in 2023 and Hughes seemed happy enough when he spoke to the Racing Post on Monday.
He said: “He’s in great form and he ran a really good race at Goodwood after a year off, but he’s the type of horse who runs well fresh.
“We’re trying to balance that out so that he’s had plenty of time after that run to this one. It was a huge run and we were absolutely delighted with him.
“This has been his target for quite a while. With that run under his belt, and the fact he’s had a lot of time to freshen up, he should run a big race.”
I’ll sit on him betting-wise for now other than having had a decidedly modest win-only bet on him so far, but the way I have played this fixed-odds-wise is a small each-way bet on Savvy Victory at 66s.
Probably too loyal but worth a swing at those odds.
GOING – Good, good to firm in places
Going stick: 6.9, Wednesday 9am (was 7.4 Monday, 9am, and was 6.9, Saturday 8am)
Saturday Rails: Far Side Course in Use
Saturday Stalls: Centre
Wednesday morning course update: Forecast: Wed / Thu – Dry and cloudy with sunny spells, max daytime temp of 17c.
Weather: Mainly dry, light showers possible
Watering: 4mm applied on Tuesday.
GOING – Good
Going stick: 7.2, Wednesday 7.15am
Wednesday morning course update: 1.4mm of rain on Saturday Wednesday: Damp start with a small shower, but not a measurable amount. Otherwise mainly dry & overcast. 16C Thursday & Friday: Misty start, mainly dry. 17C Temperatures chilly overnight.
Weather: Dry
Watering: “To maintain” (no details given, which is rather poor)
GOING – Good to soft, soft in places (for Friday’s racing) – was heavy on Monday
Wednesday morning course update: 53mm on Saturday. Outlook dry and sunny to racing. Max temperature 19°c. Live weather & going: https://www.thejockeyclub.co.uk/haydock/owners-and-trainers/the-going/
Saturday Rails: All races will be run on the outside course
Saturday Stalls: 5f & 6f: Centre 7f, 1m & 1m6f: Inner.
Weather: Dry until 1pm on Saturday (3,7mm)
1.50pm Newmarket (these are currently still in Beresford Stakes on Saturday): Action, Amadeus Mozart, Daytona, New Zealand, Nil Bua Gan Dua, Piazza San Marco, Pierre Bonnard (Bow Echo has been supplemented)
2.05pm Haydock: Angel Shared (due to run on Thursday), Another Baar, Atomic Force, Copper Knight, Duran, Germanic, Harvanna (due to run on Thurdsay), I’m Next, Tiger Tulip (due to run at Goodwood on Wednesday), Trilby, Twilight Jet
2.25pm Newmarket: Fitzella, Havana Anna, The Prettiest Star (it sounds like Fitzella is being aimed at this race at the moment)
2.40pm Haydock: Albeseeingyer, Angel Shared (due to run on Thursday), Duran, Lord Bertie, Miss Hathaway (due to run on Thursday), Pals Battalion, Station X, Trilby, Twilight Jet, Uncle Don, Wheels Of Fire, Yes I’m Mali
3pm Newmarket: NONE (Five Ways has been supplemented)
3.15pm Haydock: Angel Hunter, Ata Rangi (due to run on Wednesday), Christian David, Desperate Dan, First Ambition, Fondo Blanco, Intrusively, King Casper, Mister Winston, Mr Chaplin, Talis Evolvere, Tilted Kilt, Witch Hunter
3.40pm Newmarket (38 five-day entries for a maximum field of 35 on the day): Arisaig, Mr Baloo, Silver Sword, Take Heart, Mister Winston, Divine Knight, Earl Of Rochester, Dutch Decoy, Urban Sprawl, Sir Paul Ramsey, Desperate Dan, Whathappensinvegas
On this week’s pod: Intro: US Masters Chat (0-3mins) Gold Dancer (3-15mins) Grand National Review…
1.50pm Newmarket – Double Rush 3/1 on his debut for Andrew Balding It’ll be tentative…
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