By Tony Calvin - 8 August 2025
The Shergar Cup is upon us, so let’s be honest.
Little Englander alert, but there is no way I am backing a jockey that I have never heard of, let alone seen ride.
In a country many of the riders have not ridden in, on courses they have no experience of (plenty of “home” jockeys cock it up around Ascot), and on horses they are highly likely never to have seen race , let alone sat on.
Granted, video analysis will have been done, you’d have thought.
I am sure they are all very able jockeys in their respective homelands and jurisdictions, or else presumably they wouldn’t be here, but I am always struck how ineffective these pilots can look when coming over here.
Maybe, I am still traumatized by the (non) ride James McDonald, the Daddy Down Under, gave Royal Hunt Cup punt (try saying that quickly) Blue Brother at Royal Ascot…
I fancied Toda Madera at 40s to run a decent race in the Stewards’ Cup last weekend, only for the horse to be pulled out on account of the ground.
He has his preferred quicker surface here and is 4lb lower, so what is not to like?
Well, he has at least drifted from [7/2] to 5s on Saturday morning but Delphine Santiago is a new one on me, for all I should have been aware of the French female jockey.
This looks to be her first ride in the UK (a few of these are making such debuts, which is a massive concern) and I asked a French expert what he thought of her, and the response was that she is a middle-of-the road jockey, with a poor recent strike rate, who doesn’t ride for prominent trainers (and that was the kind assessment),
Another was far more scathing, but if you back Toca Madera you at least you know what you are getting, so no moaning if things go awry.
And, remember, moderate jockeys win every day of the week here.
Furthermore, a touch puzzling to me is that the horse was set to run in first-time cheekpieces last weekend, and they are a no-show here.
I can fully see him winning after a good fourth here last time off a 2lb higher mark, and this is a point-and-shoot 5f job so perhaps jockeys are not that important in this – and maybe that 5s is ample compensation for the jockey doubts – but I am not having a bet.
Hollie Doyle and Joanna Mason have good chances on La Vita Nova (punted into 4s from 6s) and Spirit Mixer respectively but if Dario Di Tocco, Italian’s champion jockey in 2023 and 2024, is an able pilot on his UK debut, then Dancing In Paris is an okay each-way proposition at [9/2].
Well, it was, but he is only [7/2’] tops as of Saturday morning.
The horse was actually beaten a neck by Spirit Mixer in the Northumberland Plate in late June (they meet off the same terms here) but his ½–length second to Sam Hawkens at Goodwood on Saturday was an improved effort.
He went up 2lb for it and this is obviously a quick turnaround, but I’d say that Goodwood form is very strong and this course winner finished third in this race under Alberto Sanna (no, me neither) last year.
If Di Tocco is competent enough (and I may have overstepped the mark on the jockey comment front, sorry), then whoever secured my [9/2] each way, three places, has a decent bet but the jockey puts me off, I can’t lie, as does the horse now being just [7/2].
The latter is probably the most significant of the two.
Well, it was but he got pulled out with a temperature at 7.31am, so ignore all of the above.
And maybe the below, too….
Mirai Iwata has another go for William Haggas here on the [11/2] chance Dramatic Star (was the original favourite at [9/2}.
The Japanese jockey has been based with Haggas this summer and has ridden five times for him, including on the big Saturday Goodwood gamble Headmaster, who finished last of 16.
If I were going to have a bet (no plans to) then I would probably side with Insanity, though he hails from a stable going through a quiet spell and the horse itself comes here off a poor run at Newmarket, for which the handicapper refused to drop him even 1lb.
However, I can forgive any horse a poor run on the July course and last year’s winner of this race has the known services of Joanna Mason.
He is 5lb higher than last year (beat Dream Harder, who re-opposes here, a head) but that is fair as he won well at Ayr two starts ago.
The problem is he has been cut from [17/2] to 5s.
There is a pattern developing here, with Doyle and Mason mounts proving popular. No surprise, though.
Night Breeze is the other mover into 4s.
Aussie Hugh Bowman has plenty of UK experience in his locker and has won in this competition, though, against that, he is 45 now, so he may not be at the peak of his powers.
Sorry to be a stuck record but I am not betting in this.
However, perhaps Bowman’s mount Maw Lam is half-tempting at 20s.
The horse is tricky so perhaps the first-time cheekpieces will suit and Adrian Nicholls has an excellent headgear record in this area (5 from 25).
The horse hasn’t kicked on from a good reappearance fifth in the Fred Darling but last year’s Queen Mary third is down to a mark of just 90 here.
Bowman is highly likely to be playing catch up after a slow start, though. But if he can galvanise the horse, he has the ability to be swooping late off this mark over this stiff 6f.
The 20s is actually fair if you wanted an interest (the 22s in three places was taken this morning).
I may actually relent and put my hand in my pocket here.
The aforementioned Santiago has picked up a good ride on Haggas’ hat-trick seeking Tenability here but it is a big no from me at [7/4], thanks.
If you can get the 5s in a place, or the generally available [9/2], about Mdawi that would strike me as a more sensible each-way bet, for all we have the dead-eight in here.
Ridden by Mason, he has to overcome a moderate run at Goodwood last time (and he is actually 1lb higher here), but that came 48 hours after his cracking second to Omni Man and he has a big, big shout on that run.
He has been kept busy enough in the last month but at least a top-three performance beckons on that penultimate run.
The 5s top-three is surely the best bet in here, for all it is a dead-eight.
I was surprised that bookmakers priced up the races before the jockeys were known, and Treasure Time is a case in point.
As big as 12s and 11s before Hollie Doyle got the gig, he is now a general 6s.
He is another horse you have to forgive a poor run at Goodwood last week (and, as someone pointed out on X, this quick turnaround is very unlike Haggas) but his earlier, reappearance fifth at Sandown gives him place claims here and perhaps a little more.
His final two starts last season hinted a better horse than one rated 93 was lurking in there.
The three ITV contests outside of the Shergar Cup have cut up a lot at the overnight stage, but we have some non-runner wriggle room with nine runners here, so I am inclined to have an each-way bet in this.
I say wriggle, rather than wiggle, as that surely is right, isn’t it?
Do miners buried underground say “wiggle”?
I don’t think so.
Anyway, outside of the 2023 Fillies’ Mile runner-up Shuwari (well below that form on her return after a lengthy absence at Kempton in March and not seen since) this is a very open Listed race and I think Suite Francaise can step up to the plate at 8s each way here.
That is available with three firms, albeit one bookmaking outfit.
She is only rated 95 but I was quite taken with her improved third at Sandown last time, when I took a swing at her at a big price following an impressive success here in May. She looks to have a very willing attitude.
Of course, she has to improve to win, but this is only her fourth start, and I’d like to see her given the office from the front, if she can get there early doors from trap six and see off two (Sunfall is a NR, as it was three) potential pace angles.
The 8s each-way looks decent.
It is 100pc available with those three firms when this went live at 11am (7s is okay if needs must).
So much for wriggle/wiggle room as Sunfall and Rockymountainway are NRs, bringing this down to seven runners.
An unattractive betting day just got worse.
Only eight runners (so far anyway) but this is a very good, competitive and deep race for a Group 3, with just 5lb (well 8lb if truth be told as the bottom-rated First Conquest carries a 3lb penalty) covering the field from 109 to 114.
The [10/3] chance Royal Dubai just heads the ratings after winning on his debut for the super-impressive Owen Burrows at Newbury last time, but surely Detain is the best horse in here on his narrow French Derby third in June.
Presumably something was amiss at Royal Ascot last time and maybe it was the quick ground (though he still has questions to answer here after that dismal run, whatever the reason), but he looks like the class angle to me and he gets the 8lb age allowance from the rest of the field (and 11lb from First Conquest).
This is a tough race to call but he could take some whacking if returning to the level of that Classic form, and 3s looks a fair price.
I can resist a punt, however, but he may be the bet if you want one (he has drifted to 5.8 on Betfair, to small sums, as at 7.06am on Saturday morning, with Haatem shortening into favouritism at around 11/4).
Haunted Dream at 12s would be very tempting each-way if all eight go, mind you.
The [25/1] outsider Certain Lad could get an uncontested lead, by the way.
He won’t now as he is a NR due to being a NR, we are down to seven again.
Newmarket rightly got a lot of stick for the ground they produced on July Cup day – it wasn’t fast ground, as advertised – and I think it is fair to say they have over-watered far too much down the years for anyone to be confident in the surface they produce when watering.
They put 10mm down on Wednesday, ahead of their two-day meeting which started on Friday, so it will be interesting to see how it rides there on Friday evening.
The 7f 2yo Group 3 Sweet Solera has cut up to just six runners, so my Tuesday assertion that Dance To The Music was underpriced at [5/2] now needs some revision.
She is now a best-priced [6/4] against five rivals but I still can’t be having her at the price, given she has plenty to prove form-wise and we haven’t seen her since May (though the form has worked out okay, the time was moderate).
She is very opposable here at her current odds.
Obviously, she is one of three unbeaten fillies in here, and Princess Petrol also won last time out, but surely form fillies Venetian Lace and Midnight Tango are the two to concentrate at [11/2] and [9/2] respectively.
Midnight Tango actually finished 4 lengths behind Dance To The Music on their respective debuts on the Rowley course in May but she has obviously come on a ton since and she’d be one of the two form horses in here (and on time figures, too), just behind Venetian Lace.
The latter has course form, having finished fourth in the Superlative Stakes here last time, and looks the likely leader in this.
Admittedly, you’d have liked to have seen her finish off her race more strongly last time though, though she did meet a little trouble.
Maybe a reverse forecast on her and Midnight Tango could be the call here, for all we are dealing with relative unknowns ranged against them (one less now as True Test is a NR as at 5.20pm with a bad scope – a 12s chance, so a small Rule 4), but it isn’t that tempting a betting medium, in truth.
Suite Francaise at [8/1], each way, in 2.25pm at Haydock
I wasn’t tracking the entries closely enough to say this with any authority – nothing much has changed there then, I hear you say – but I just wonder whether the proximity of the valuable pots of the Racing League (today, on Thursday) or the Sunday Series (on Sunday, funnily enough) has badly affected the Shergar Cup numbers.
In fact, I am pretty sure they did.
I am not sure how we are/were in the position of staging these three events within four days of each other, but the Racing League and Sunday Series were always going to be talent-drains from the main weekend Ascot offering, robbing Peter to pay Paul yet again, in racing terms (I haven’t looked into it closely but I imagine they attract/attracted a similar pool of horses).
Ascot’s ideal is to have 12 entries for each race, allowing them two reserves for each contest, which can run up to 45 minutes beforehand.
But only three of the six races have attracted a dozen entries (balloted-out runners for those heats are listed below) and the 1m4f handicap, worth 80k, is four light with only eight runners.
Proof positive that you can throw any amount of money at a race but if the horses ain’t there, they ain’t there.
Or that we have too many options for our horse population – hardly a original thought, that.
Two less fixtures next year will soon sort that….
Anyway, the Shergar Cup jockeys are known sometime on Thursday afternoon, so I am surprised most bookmakers have already priced up the six races.
You can bet the horses ridden by the home-based jockeys will be defensively priced, and maybe then some, but even so.
In common with a lot of people in racing – even Nick Luck is on holiday ffs – I normally take Shergar Cup week off every year.
Now I know why, as I genuinely hadn’t heard of seven of the 12 competing jockeys and I only knew of Robbie Dolan because I saw him singing (rather well, to be fair) Desperado on some Aussie chat show a few years back.
Make your own desperado jokes here if you are considering betting on the Shergar Cup….
Back early on Saturday morning, I imagine.
Maybe before, you never know your luck.
I just checked at 2.30pm (On Thursday) and the jockeys are now known.
GOING: Good to firm, good in places
Stick readings
Soil moisture: 33%. Readings taken at 8am on Saturday 9th August
Saturday morning course update: Dry since Monday to 6.30am Saturday. 2mm rain recorded over the past 7 days. A fine dry day is forecast, temp to 27c. For access to our live weather station and for the latest Going info please go to www.ascot.com/thegoing
Weather: Dry and warm
Watering: Watered Straight course 10mm on Friday and Wednesday and watered Round course 3mm on Friday night, Thursday and Wednesday nights.
GOING: Good, good to firm in places
Saturday morning course update: 3mm Sunday, 10mm Monday. 2.8mm Tuesday, dry since. Outlook: Dry & sunny spells. Max temperature: 21°C. Live weather & going: https://www.thejockeyclub.co.uk/haydock/owners-and-trainers/the-going/
Rails: All races will run on the outside course. Rail is on outermost configuration stables bend, and outside position of the east bend.
Stalls: 1m2f: Centre 7f & 1m: Inside
Weather: Dry and warm
Watering: Wednesday 2mm straight 6f-4f. 4mm back straight
GOING: Good to firm
Going Stick: 7.1, Saturday 7am
Saturday morning course update: Dry overnight. Forecast: Dry and cloudy with sunny spells, max daytime temp of 25c.
Rails: Far Side Course in use
Stalls: 5f, 6f, 7f and 1m – Centre. 1m 2f and 1m4f – Inside.
Weather: Dry, sunny and warm
Watering: 10mm applied on Wednesday
1.35pm Ascot – Reserves: Emperor Spirit, Nimitz; Balloted out: Alaskan Gold, Rhythm N Hooves, Purest Time, Existent. Cayman Tai
2.45pm Ascot – Reserve: Ocean Of Dreams
3.20pm Ascot – Reserve: King’s Call; Balloted out; King of Light, American Style, Dark Cloud Rising, Novamay, Cayman Tai, Our Planet (Dyonisos NR at 10.43am Friday – “tied up”)
4.30pm Ascot – Reserves: Leadman, Silent Age
1.35pm Ascot: Regal Envoy, Toca Madera (prom), Dream Composer?, Venture Capital, Emperor Sprit (reserve), Nimitz (reserve)
2.10pm Ascot: Enemy?, Scottish Anthem (prom), Almuhit (Dancing In Paris a NR as at 7.31am with a temperature)
2.25pm Haydock: Vicario, Protest, Suite Francaise (prom) (Sunfall is a NR due to going)
2.45pm Ascot: La Pulga, Candyman Stan, Asgard’s Captain (prom?), Great Bedwyn (prom), Ocean Of Dreams (reserve)
3pm Haydock: No obvious pace no Certain Lad is a NR.
3.20pm Ascot: Flash Harry, Hucklesbrook, Marchogion?, Up The Pace (prom)
3.40pm Newmarket (little evidence to go on): Venetian Lace
3.55pm Ascot: Top Team, Canvas, Mdawi
4.30pm Ascot: Golden Mind (prom), Two Tempting (prom), Urban Lion (prom), Brave Emperor, Cerulean Bay (prom), Silent Age (reserve – prom)
Excellent: Owen Burrows
Good: Simon and Ed Crisford, Brian Meehan, Faye Bramley (two runners; one winner – trains out of AP’s yard….), William Haggas (very good), Marco Botti, Clive Cox, Ralph Beckett, Charlie Appleby, Ollie Sangster, John and Thady Gosden
Fair: Robert Cowell (winless but getting better gradually), Roger Teal, Richard Fahey (generous assessment), William Knight, Kevin Ryan (borderline moderate), Michael Keady, Ian Williams, Andrew Balding, Adrian Keatley (15-2 winner on Thursday), Dylan Cunha, Jessie Harrington (Chepstow winner on Thursday night), Charlie Johnston, Archie Watson (11-2 winner on Friday), Julie Camacho, Adrian Nicholls, Seb Spencer, Gemma Tutty (13-2 winner on Friday), Jonathan Portman, Jack Channon (12-1 winner on Thursday), Muir and Grassick, David O’Meara, Charlie Fellowes (double on Thursday highlight of a very poor domestic season), Roger Varian, Hamad Al Jehani, Jane Chapple-Hyam (elevated from mediocrity after Thursday night), Ed Walker (Thursday broke a poor spell)
Moderate: Richard Hannon, Scott Dixon, Harry Charlton (poor until 11-4 winner on Friday, though), Alan King
Don’t know: Henrik Engblom, John Ryan, James Evans, Edward Smyth-Osbourne
NEEDLE MATCH AND WILLIAM HAGGAS IN FOCUS – The 2,000 Guineas Having listened to William…
SUNDAY’s COURSE DETAILS NEWMARKET GOING: Good to firm GOING STICK: 7.1 , Friday 6am Rails: Stands Side…
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