TONY CALVIN: 33/1 chance looks too big in York opener on Saturday

The intro

With Royal Ascot on our doorstep (s), there is no surprise to see some low-key stuff from the three Saturday ITV tracks from York, Sandown and Chester, all of whom also race on Friday.

It is a big day for York though, as it is the 54^th Macmillan Charity race day, which helps raise vital funds for those living with cancer.

It has raised over £10.5m to date; support it if you can.

There is plenty of rain around all week (see below), so keep an eye on that.

Probably both eyes, in fact.

The updated Tuesday forecast (from yr.no) for Chester sees 7mm on Thursday and a colossal 35mm on Friday! (granted, that’s an extreme forecast),

York has 18mm coming on Friday, we are told by the Norwegians.

Sandown has about 9mm coming on Thursday and Friday.

WEATHER UPDATE ON WEDNESDAY MORNING

Localised thunderstorms are still possible but Sandown are now expecting light showers , if anything.

Chester’s deluge has now been downgraded to a relative trickle and York’s Friday downpour of 18mm no more, so much so they were watering on Tuesday (4mm – well done to York for giving details).

In fact, all of the latest details are below.

1.50pm York – 33/1 Yanifer too big off a falling handicap mark at a track he goes well at

It is 7s the field as of Wednesday morning.

There is no Oddschecker grid on this race (and a couple of other later races) but a few bookmakers have priced this up, so you’ll have go old-fashioned and trawl from site to site.

I suspect Dashing Darcey will go close if he runs here after a back-to-form run at Haydock – he is a best-priced 7s from what I can see – but the problem is he is also in at Sandown on Saturday (as well as the Hunt Cup next week).

Fellow market leader Admiral Churchill is also double entered (he has two other options this week) and the one I think is overpriced is Yanifer at 33s (available with three firms).

He has run well on all three starts here, winning once, finishing a 1 ¼ length second of 18 and seventh of 17, beaten 2 ¾ lengths, to Tolstoy in this very race last season.

I backed him last time out at Chester, despite his draw in 10, and I thought he ran very well despite being beaten 4 lengths under Aiden Brookes.

He, probably predictably enough, had a wide passage all the way round before staying on late (he wore a first-time hood there) and he got dropped 1lb for it.

He went up to a mark of 93 after winning at Chester last August and he is now down to 91.

This is his only option this week, regular pilot is 3lb claimer Oisin McSweeney is already jocked up (not that you should take too much notice of that) and the 33s and 25s in the marketplace simply looks too big.

I’ll try to back him.

There is now 18mm forecast at York on Friday, from one site, but he is is ground-versatile and he has won well on soft before for McSweeney (it is currently good to firm. good in places, at York, though).

The Harriet Bethell yard is going along well enough, scoring with their last runner at Doncaster last week.

There are 30 in this at the five-day stage (for a maximum field of 22) but, as you can see below, a lot of these have other options.

Yanifer is available at 25s in three places as of Wednesday morning.

Our Havana has been the one for early nibbles, into 12s from 20s and 16s, back down to his best trip.

Three in here are set to run on Thursday, so don’t back them ante-post.

And last year’s winner Tolstoy is set to run at York on Friday, along with Little Empire and Quest For Fun.

2.05pm Sandown – 16/1 Sean down to a winnable mark but he is in at Royal Ascot next week, too

Eight of the 17 in here could go elsewhere this week, so that gives punters a possible angle into this 1m handicap.

Not many have priced this up yet but one firm who have has [5/1] co-favourites of three, bringing Theoryofeverything, Classic and Urban Lion, as well as another trio at 7s or shorter.

Sean races off his lowest mark since he came from Italy and ran okay, despite finishing last of five, at Windsor last time, so he looked a fair enough price at 16s.

But he is also in the Hunt Cup next week, a race he ran in last year, so will he wait for that?

2.25pm York – Early prices for this race are not enticing

There are 22 in this (for a maximum field of 20) and I imagine it will fill pretty well, as it is the 1m4f Queen Mother’s handicap for female amateur riders.

Effectively only two bookmaking outfits have priced this up and, let just say, some of the prices are not enticing.

Indeed, one group go 5s, 5s, 6s, 6s and 6s about their first five in the betting.

Errr, okay….

Granted the other firm’s odds are much better, but this is an easy race to leave alone ante-post.

Sportingsilvermine is due to run at Lingfield on Wednesday.

2.40pm Sandown – No hurry to bet in the Scurry

The forecast for Sandown includes rain (see below) but not as much as Chester and York (at the moment).

Eleven have been entered for this 5f Scurry Stakes but bookmakers are asking you to pay a heavy price to get involved, once again.

The sponsor, for example (and the others are equally unappealing) bet [5/2], [5/2], 3s and 4s the top four in their betting.

Star Of Mehmas (the only penalised horse in here), Hold A Dream and Coto De Caza are all joint-favourites in places.

3pm York – Absurde trimmed into 9/4

Just the 10 for this 70k 1m6f Listed race (the Race To The Ebor Grand Cup), but none are double entered, so you’d be hopeful most of these will rock up.

However, all firms bar one betting on this race are only offering a quarter 1,2.

It is a very tight-knit race on ratings and similarly in the betting, with Absurde ranging from [5/4] to [3/1], with the [7/2] taken with the latter firm on Tuesday morning.

I suppose the firm offering  [3/1] have clocked he is in the Gold Cup next week – he is the only one of these with a current Royal Ascot entry – and he may wait for that.

I can easily hold fire, too.

Some haven’t, as the unpenalised Absurde is into [9/4] best now. Al Qareem carries a 5lb penalty.

3.20pm Chester – Don’t back Sea Force

I have made this point before, and I think it bears repeating.

Do you want to be betting ante-post at this track when a wide draw could see a withdrawal on the day?

I get there are only 15 entries for this 7f127yd handicap, so it may not be a factor in this instance.

Don’t back the favourite, though

Handicap debutant Sea Force as short as the [5/2] favourite in places and you can see why as a thrice-raced, well-bred colt (by Sea The Stars out of the stable’s dual Group 3-winning 106-rated Pretty Baby) running off a mark of 88.

The big problem backing him is he is now due to run at Nottingham on Thursday, so don’t back him.

Little wonder one firm now make him 5s….

3.35pm York – Big field for a 125k pot

Thirty-five entries for a maximum field of 22 on the day for this 125k Macmillan Sprint Trophy.

This is one hot 3yo sprint handicap, so I would be very much inclined to have all the facts in my possession before possibly departing with any cash.

If you put a bet up, you have to punt it yourself (or at least try to….)

Tawasol, Double Rush and Invictus Gold are all vying for favouritism between 6s and 8s.

SATURDAY’s GOING AND WEATHER – all updated Wednesday afternoon

YORK (two-day meeting starting on Friday)

Going: Good to firm, good in places

Going stick: 6.6, Wednesday 3.40pm

Wednesday afternoon course update: A warm sunny Wednesday to 3.45pm. Recent rainfall of 2mm Monday night making 5.4mms rain in last 7days. Met Office forecast: remaining warm but unsettled with chance of showers on Thursday, 23 degrees. A dry, sunny day for racing on Friday but feeling humid, 26 degrees. Risk of isolated thundery downpours possible Friday night into early hours Saturday morning, then turning fresher during Saturday with sunny spells, 22 degrees. Live links to our weather station and Met Office forecast are available on our website www.yorkracecourse.co.uk then click Going report on the home page.

Watering: Irrigated with 2mms Sunday night & 4mms Tuesday night. 2mms to be applied Wednesday night.

Forecast: 6mm Friday evening; 2mm Saturday

Rails: Planned rail position: Friday rail : innermost from 9f to entrance to the home straight. No change to official race distances required. Saturday rail position tba after racing on Friday.

Stalls: 5f, 6f and 1m4f – Centre. Remainder – Inside Rail

SANDOWN (two-day meeting starting on Friday)

Going – Round: – Good, good to firm in places; Sprint: Good

Going stick – Round: 6.9: Sprint: 6.5 (Wednesday 7am)

Wednesday morning course update: 7mm rain last Thursday. 10mm rain Saturday. Drier and much warmer this week, with a chance of a thundery breakdown on Friday evening. Drier again for Saturday.

Forecast: Light showers, if anything, though Wednesday afternoon update now says 7.7mm on Friday and 3mm Saturday

Rails: Round Course out up to 5 yards.

Stalls: Sprint Course – Far Side Remainder – Inside

CHESTER (two-day meeting starting on Friday)

Going: Good to soft, good in places

Going stick: 7.2, Tuesday, 7.15am

Wednesday morning course update: 1.8mm rain on Monday night. 26.8mm over the last 7 days. Forecast to be bright, warm and dry today with highs of 25’C and a moderate breeze. Showers forecast on Thursday with between 2mm and 5mm expected over the course of the day. Friday is currently forecast to be warm and dry through the day with highs of 22’C, a 12mph Southerly breeze and a risk of thundery showers late afternoon.

Forecast: Wednesday afternoon update now says 14mm on Thursday

Rails: The rail will be on the inside line. Distances as measured

Stalls:1m2f – Outside Remainder – Inside

DOUBLE ENTRIES this week (plenty in Royal Ascot early-closers, too) – do not back horses in bold, ante-post

1.50pm York: Admiral Churchill (due to run at Fairyhouse on Friday), Aleezdancer, Alzahir, Blue For You, Cabellerosso, Cosi Bello, Dashing Darcey, Grand Karat (entered overnight on Thursday), Hickory (entered overnight on Thursday), Little Empire (due to run at York on Friday), Modern Times, Palmar Bay, Quest For Fun (due to run at York on Friday), Sir Les Patterson, Surrey Shadow (entered overnight on Thursday), Tolstoy (due to run at York on Friday)

2.05pm Sandown: Approval (due to run at Sandown on Friday), Asterverdi, Atherston Warrior, Atlantic Gamble (NR at Yarmouth on  Wednesday), Blue For You, Dashing Darcey, Son (due to run at Sandown on Friday), Urban Sprawl

2.25pm York: Austrian Theory (due to run at York on Friday), Born Ruler, Dancing In Paris, Destinado, Glasses Up, Glistening Nights, Kitsune Power (finished a good second on Monday), Per Contra, Sportingsilvermine (finished third of five at evens on Wednesday), Whathappensinvegas

2.40pm Sandown: Marty Hopkirk, Red Sand, Saratoga Special, Veblon Good

3pm York: NONE (as yet)

3.20pm Chester: Frankies Dream, Liberalised, Mayday Malone, Miss Collada (due to run at Sandown on Friday), Principality, Sea Force (due to run on Thursday), Stapleford Park, Tattie Bogle

3.40pm York: Admiral Churchill (due to run at Fairyhouse on Friday), Cabellerosso, Easy Peeler (due to run at York on Friday), Far Above Dream, Frankies Dream, Maelstrom, Red Sand, The Flying Seagull, The Quiet Gent, Tuco Salamanca, U Sure Do, Veblem Good