By Tony Calvin - 6 June 2025
Epsom got 6.8mm of rain yesterday, and I expect the ground to be good to soft once they update this morning (they had another 2mm burst yesterday evening after their 4.58pm posting on the BHA site).
Friday is due to be largely dry and bright, 17 degrees, with possibly the odd light shower this morning (they’ve had 1mm of rain).
Epsom have updated at 7.01am and it is good to soft, good in places.
Full details below in the stats/info section.
Here is a clue – that headline originally read “8/1 Formal will surely be given a more vigorous ride here”, but more of that shortly.
Thankfully, all of the Friday races stood up well at the overnight stage, and we only lost three from this 3yo 7f Listed race on Wednesday morning.
That leaves us with the dangerous dead-eight though, which is even more precarious with Thursday’s rain. You would imagine connections of a few horses running on the day are set to do a course walk when they get to Epsom.
Apart from the fat and lazy ones, anyway.
But the 6.8mm will hopefully not made any dent of note, even on watered ground.
Now, with the three form horses carrying penalties, this is a very tight-knit race on official ratings, and the pace map (see below) doesn’t give a definitive angle.
Diego Ventura, hailing from a small Newmarket stable in good form, is the obvious favourite and I actually don’t have much issue with his price tag, although the top odds of [9/4] is only available with one firm.
He has proved very consistent since joining his yard after winning on his debut for Gavin Cromwell at Naas last July, he is ground-versatile (finished second to the out-of-form The Waco Kid, who has the cheekpieces fitted here, on soft ground in the Tattersalls Stakes) and comes here on the back of a Longchamp Listed win last month.
He also wore first-time pieces when winning there (he picked up a 3lb penalty for that success) and he just looks the most solid of these.
But the [9/4] isn’t massively enticing me in – he is generally [15/8] and [7/4] – and that is only available in one spot, as I said earlier.
It is not going to take much improvement for a few of these to put it up to him – even from recent disappointments such as The Waco Kid and Rebel’s Gamble – and the fillies Formal and Saqqara Sands look likely lasses.
The latter makes her seasonal debut for a stable beginning to swing into form at the right time, but Formal is reasonably interesting.
Or was.
She had soft ground form for the Sir Michael Stoute yard last season and I thought Oisin Murphy gave her a curiously inactive ride when she was sent off at [13/2] for the Fred Darling last time.
It could be that her best days are already behind her after just the four starts, but I can’t believe Murphy won’t give it more welly from the saddle here. The hood that was on for the first at Newbury is off here, which I am taking as a positive.
But, in summary, I am now happy to sit this one out, as the initial 8s about her soon went, as did the generally available 7s on Thursday afternoon.
She is now just 4s, which is too short for me to get involved.
Ten relatively inexperienced 2yos – is there are any other type at this time of the year, so that was undoubtedly a superfluous opening to commenting on this race – going at it on rain-softened ground on the eye-opener that is Epsom’s downhill 6f track doesn’t scream betting race to me.
But there are occasionally diamonds in them there hills, and every horse has its punting price.
The early market suggested one horse had a 40 per cent of winning this, and that was [6/4] poke Maximised, who chinned his odds-on stablemate Time To Turn at Haydock last month.
He is now best at [11/8] and a general [5/4].
He went for 720k at the Breeze-Ups before that (it tells you how crazy that market is when he can still be sent off 11/2 in an eight-runner novice after going for that kind of money) , so I suppose his position at the top of the market was inevitable, but I can’t really see how he justifies his current price here.
Plenty of these have recorded a similar form and time performance, and they include all the three that Richard Hannon is throwing at this 6f conditions race.
His Logi Bear may have got chinned 2 lengths by Havana Hurricane (the [10/3] second favourite in this) at Goodwood but he recorded a much better effort when winning in a fair time at Newmarket last time, and he’d be the last horse I’d want to lay at the current prices.
Maybe with the exception of the 50s poke Anaisa, who I have had a mammoth £6 on at [95.0].
So if you want an interest then Logi Bear at [13/2] – all the winners carry 5lb penalties here, by the way – would be the way I suggest you play this, as experience can count for a lot around here (Anaisa is the only other horse to have raced three times) and he is going in the right direction.
Trap three is a fair berth if Jamie Spencer wants to break the habit of a lifetime and jump him out. And JP is perhaps better than most when he does.
And, for a numbers yard, the Richard Hannon stable is going great guns at the moment.
But, as I always say, these 2yo contests are a guessing game to me – the Time Bandits tend to have a better handle on these things – as they are often full of unknowns, and we have a newcomer in here (from a stable that basically trains on the course, so I imagine Trinculo has had a few spins around Epsom to familiarise himself), three once-raced winners and no horse who has run more than four times.
Na, give me something more meaty most days of the week.
And, I’ve just had another look, and Maximized was rather impressive at Agnes Haddock (remember her and the Scoop 6 Squirrel?).
The Charlie Appleby yard must have some big punters attached to it (indeed, this has been true of Godolphin for decades), so they must have thought a fair bit of the horse he beat for it to be sent off at a heavily-punted [8/13].
Too Darn Good is a NR at 9.04am (going).
In times gone by, I used to go up with my tipping copy at the 48-hour stage because I was terrified of missing a price (though I was always asked to file the column at this stage whenever possible, so the marketing team could format their emails to customers etc).
But I realise that was pretty insecure and ridiculous given the fragile state of the markets these days, that faint at any sign of a bet – and I am more chilled now, too… – and one of the benefits of going up on the day is that you know the state of the ground.
Mind you, you have to wear disappearing prices – and that is what has happened here, too.
I was particularly keen to see how much rain landed, as I really fancied Giavellotto in this , particularly without the favourite (hands up, I backed him at 10-3 without Calandagan on Wednesday, or rather someone else did, if I am allowed to say that).
And, hands up even higher in the air, I did get 10s about him on Wednesday (though not the opening 11s elsewhere).
It seems Marco Botti, fresh from training the winner of the Italian Derby with the 90-rated Molveno, thinks he wants decent ground to show his best and he has a point.
But it was good to soft when he won a Group 2 at Newmarket last summer, an assessment Timeform agreed with, and hopefully he can get away with it here, with a dry Friday.
Now Calandagan is going to take plenty of whacking as his second to City Of Troy in particular marks him out as a top-notcher. And his reappearance second in the Sheema Classic in April was an excellent return.
But Giavellotto’s fifth in the latter race was equally as promising, as he was given a balls of ride there (sorry, again Oisin), sitting last in a slowly-run race, too far off the pace over 1m4f – this horse stays 2m – so I’d be hopeful he can finish second at least here.
His 2 ½-length defeat of globetrotter Dubai Honour in the 1m4f Hong Kong Vase in December is not to be sniffed at.
Of course, you have to respect the claims of Leger winner Jan Brueghel, a 4s poke back up in trip, but Giavellotto could still be a horse on the up, even at six.
Let’s hope the ground isn’t an issue, and Friday looks a pretty dry day.
However, from a betting perspective, Giavellotto’s price has collapsed since Wednesday (generally 4s and [9/2], with AKBets’ 6s the top price around).
Oddschecker don’t have a “Without Calandagan” market, so I went from site to site looking for the best price this morning, and that is a mere [7/4] now (I obviously can’t name the firm in question).
Such is life.
But I do think Giavellotto will give the favourite a race here, and I wouldn’t lay the 6s either.
Being able to back a horse who is 2lb well-in at [12/1] each way, four places – that price is available pretty much across the board, with a couple of exceptions – isn’t a bad route into any handicap, and that is what we can we do with Have Secret.
The issue is, do we pursue it?
Now, this is pretty deep and competitive race (as it should be for such a valuable handicap, for all we are still seven shy of the maximum field of 20), and it has to be said that the Richard Fahey stable are in pretty poor form.
A haul of 24 winners in 2025 is moderate for a string of his size, and he has only had recent winners at [13/8] and [3/1] from a truckload of recent runners.
But at least Have Secret is in decent nick, having finished second to an all-the-way winner at Ripon last week, and he is set to run off a 2lb higher mark in the future.
It could be that a classy handicap such as this takes him out of his comfort zone, as his trainer himself admits may well be the case, and he has never raced here before, but he has run well on tricky courses like Goodwood and Chester before, and 1m2f with a bit of dig are his optimum conditions.
Looking at the Ripon run last time, you can argue he did very well to get so close to the enterprisingly-ridden winner, and I think he has a fair shout of hitting the first four at the very least.
I have had a small each-way bet on him, as there are plenty you can fear.
Apparently, Roger Varian has had four runners in this handicap since 2014 – and they have all won (courtesy of stat-geek, trends guru Andrew Mount).
Big Rog clearly think this horse is much better than his mark of 99 but he doesn’t have a solid profile. He is a general [7/2] chance, but 4s in a place.
As Ryan Moore once said to Lydia Hislop when she asked hm about strategy in some contest or another, “every race is tactical” – but you’d love to know what Ballydoyle are plotting as to how they ride their three in the Oaks.
I imagine they will be out to test Desert Flower’s stamina to the limit (no shit, Sherlock), as well as making life tough for the Godolphin filly from the outset from stall one – Aidan O’Brien’s Minnie Hauk and Giselle are drawn in two and three – and two of the trio could be sacrificed to a degree on the front end.
Of course, they may be good enough to stay there, but I’d rather be on the more conservatively ridden of their three.
We know Minnie Hauk and Giselle have won over trips close to 1m4f, and Whirl was ridden aggressively on the front end when winning the Musidora, but, as I said in the ante-post preview, trying to second-guess this mob is not advisable.
Who knows they may even let Joseph O’Brien’s Wemighttakedelongway (I think it is fair to assume the father may have spoken to his son beforehand) and Qilin Queen do the heavy lifting for them.
The way I played this race ante-post was to primarily lay Desert Flower – in the end I averaged a lay of 2.61 of her – and secondary win-only bets on Whirl and Elwateen.
To be honest, I have gone off the latter, a Guineas fourth, a touch and the sacrificial angle makes me wary of pressing up to any significant degree on Whirl.
That and the general 7s yesterday becoming just 4s and [9/2], with AKBets’ [11/2] comfortably the best around.
On what we know Whirl is a big runner here, as her Musidora win is the second-best piece of form in here, and on the clock too, and I’d be very keen on her if they rode her just behind the pace here and kicked for home in the straight.
Basically, I think you can make a case for anything bar the favourite at their respective prices – maybe chief among them likely big improver Revoir, perhaps – so I am happy with the lay.
Desert Flower’s last-traded price in the Oaks ante-post market was [2.38], and she has drifted to a more realistic [13/8] now, in three places (including with AKBets), but I genuinely wouldn’t be interested in backing her at 2s.
The form of her 1,000 Guineas win was not strong (her juvenile form was stronger) and I think she has a huge question to answer on her first beyond 1m, up four furlongs against the O’Brien whippersnappers, father and son.
She may well outclass these and not need to fully stay – staying is relative to the opposition, as Usain Bolt said to me in the London Marathon – in which case I’ll be paying out.
I may back Revoir each way, small at 9s, even if the 11s and 10s went yesterday.
She only just got edged out by Qilin Queen in a dawdle-then-sprint 1m2f race at Newbury, and she looks a sure-fire stayer and improver over 1m4f, with 2008 Oaks winner Look Here (also won this on her third outing, having been beaten in her prep) in her bloodlines.
Sure, she needs to progress markedly to win this, but this is just her third start – and in Ralph, we trust.
Recent course winner Tribal Rhythm is 3lb out of the handicap here, but he is still being respected in the market at a top-priced 10s, and this is simply a very open handicap, with cases to be made for them all at their odds.
I tend to ignore horses from the David O’Meara yard in handicaps because he is basically a numbers trainer and he throws a lot of darts at the board, spaghetti to the wall, often in the same race, and he has three in here.
However, the two that interested me most on Thursday morning in were actually his Bopedro at 10s and Julia Augusta at 25s.
But now they are just [17/2] and 16s.
Grrrr.
Bopedro has been unfortunate enough to bump into two live ones in Fox Legacy and Mutaawid on his last two starts, but he was actually dropped 1lb after his Newmarket second last time, and I can see him going well again here.
He handles dig well enough, so yesterday’s rain shouldn’t be too much of a ballache – I would accept his very best efforts have come on decent ground but good to soft isn’t an issue for him at all – and he ran better than his finishing position suggests when seventh to cosy recent Chester winner Two Tempting in this race last season.
Thursday’s rain may not have been ideal for stablemate Julia Augusta, and we don’t know straight she is, but the 25s about her seems to be far too big.
And maybe the 16s is okay too, although she may drift back out.
Her mark is very exploitable on her Group 2 effort at Royal Ascot last summer, and her earlier two-length fourth at odds of 66s in the Princess Elizabeth Stakes at this meeting last season wasn’t far behind that in form terms.
If Tom Marquand (0 from 25 for the yard, but we will ignore that…) can bounce her out on the bunny, or sit close to the pace – there are a few forward-goers in here, see below – then she could outrun her outsider quoes.
She goes well enough fresh, too,
She won on her debut, scored first time up in 2022, and finished fourth in Listed company in 2024 before coming here nearly two months later.
I’ll see how the market shapes up on those two later, as I suspect they may drift back out.
Obelix is a NR at 8.05am (going).
I hope the Horsewatchers are dragged off Racing TV and hauled in front of the stewards if Rhoscolyn wins this race for the third time, to explain the horse’s three runs this season.
Only joking lads….
He is actually due to go down another 1lb in the future, but he clearly has a huge chance in this after running well at 50s under a 5lb claimer at Chester last week (and, being serious, that wasn’t an overly-quiet ride in being beaten just 3 lengths), and Thursday’s rain could have been the icing on the cake for him.
He treads exactly the same Chester-Epsom path as he did last season (six days in between) and he loves a downhill track (when the foot is right down to the pedal…), and he races off the same mark as when winning this last year.
Lame jokes aside, little wonder the early 5s has become [7/2], and that is available in just one place. I’d prefer him over fellow [7/2] joint favourite Miss Information.
He had Marlay Park and Darkness in behind when winning this last season, and it is stablemate Darkness that could be the main stumbling block to win number three after a cosy win at Thirsk last time.
He went up a fair 4lb for that win on fast ground and, if anything, the recent rain should be even more in his favour.
He finished second in this race in 2023 and, even off his revised mark, he is still 3lb lower than when an excellent fourth in the Golden Mile at Goodwood two years ago despite three successes since.
Darkness is surprisingly weak [13.5] on the exchange as this goes live, and a general [15/2] fixed odds, four places for each way punters, and that looks the best bet at the current odds to me. Looking at the exchange price, the fixed-odds firms may mirror and chase him out, too.
Going: Good to soft, good in places
Going stick: 6.3, Friday 9am (was 6.9, Thursday 7am)
Home Straight – Top/Stands Side 6.0 Inside 6.1
Friday morning update: 3.4mm rain Tuesday afternoon. Dry Wednesday. 7mm rain Thursday to 8pm. 1mm rain Friday at 8.30 am. Clearing to a brighter, breezy afternoon. Temperature mid to high teens.
Watering: 5mm irrigation applied to Home Straight and selected areas of Back Straight during Tuesday. No further irrigation.
Forecast: Light showers if anything today
Rails: Rail out up to 5 yards from 1m to finish.
Stalls: 6f – Outside 1m 4f – Centre Remainder – Inside
Hugh Palmer cheekpieces – The Waco Kid, 1.30pm 15-125 (since 2016)
George Boughey, cheekpieces – Botanical, 2.40pm 14-107 (2020)
1.30pm Epsom: The Waco Kid, Hallasan (prom), Glamis Road, Saqqara Sands (prom)
2.05pm Epsom (very limited evidence; others have raced prominently too): Logi Bear, Raakeb, Anaisa
2.40pm Epsom: Ancient Wisdom, Bellum Justum?, Continuous, You Got To Me
3.15pm Epsom: Botanical (prom), Ecureuil Secret (prom), Ashariba (prom), Westerton?, Rathgar, Son Of Man (prom)
4pm Epsom: Desert Flower, Elwateen (prom), Minnie Hauk, Qilin Queen, Wemighttakedlongway, Whirl (prom)
4.35pm Epsom: Flight Plan, Two Tempting (prom), Ebts Guard (prom), Julia Augusta (prom), Mr Baloo, Mirsky (prom)
5.10pm Epsom: Samuel Colt (prom), Golden Mind?, Miss Information (prom), Local Hero, Persuasion (prom), Legal Reform, Partisan Hero, Darkness
Good: Hamad Al Jehani (small sample), Charlie Appleby, Richard Hannon, F-H Graffard, Aidan O’Brien, John and Thady Gosden, Ed Walker, Muir and Grassick
Fair: Hugo Palmer (borderline good), Karl Burke, Adrian Keatley, Ollie Sangster, Andrew Balding, Ralph Beckett (borderline good), Roger Varian, Eve Johnson Houghton, Tim Easterby, Charles Hills, Joseph O’Brien, Marco Botti (won Italian Derby), George Boughey, David O’Meara, Alan King, Jack Channon, Julie Camacho, Michael and David Easterby, Saeed bin Suroor, Jonathan Portman, Gary and Josh Moore, Denis Coakley, Jim Boyle (few close calls, and a winner on Tuesday), Jennie Candlish, David and Nicola Barron, Michael Herrington (no winners from a large sample but going pretty well all the same), Simon Dow (25-1 winner on Tuesday), David Loughnane
Moderate: George Baker, Ivan Furtado, Richard Fahey, David Menuisier (though had first winner in 42 days on Tuesday, so has the tide turned?), Kevin Thomas Coleman, Amanda Perrett
Don’t know: Raphael Freire
On this week’s podcast: Intro: Golf, HBF Survey, SmartBash (0-3mins) Racing Review: Busy Week On…
3.30pm Haydock – My Betting Instinct is that First is too big at 16s in…
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