By Tony Calvin - 31 May 2025
On Monday, I thought there wouldn’t be good in any of the three going descriptions for Saturday’s ITV tracks – the whole of the North was set to a get a shedload of rain – but we are now looking at exactly that at all of them, with York set to ride on the quicker side.
Haydock and Chester are now good, with York good, good to firm in places.
So my take on many of the races have changed.
Read below.
It is a very low-key betting day for me (really low-stakes stuff), but that is no bad thing, as I referenced on this week’s The Racing Room podcast.
The Scattergun approach is long gone for me, in an age where it is increasingly hard to get on, anyway.
Plenty of NRs are coming in at Haydock, so keep an eye on those.
First things first, if you had an ante-post bet on this race, check out the long list of those balloted out below.
Make sure you get you money back on these.
It’s obviously a low-key weekend but the person who wrote that we should consider jettisoning an Epsom Classic into this Saturday must have been ten pints down when he filed that.
Anyway, Haydock, like York, have missed a lot of the deluge that was forecast earlier in the week, so it is now good there, with the good to soft patches disappearing overnight.
As for this race, I have no real betting opinion but Dakota Gold looked okay at a general 18s, five places. I probably won’t be having a bet, though.
Dakota Gold went up 3lb for his Ripon reappearance win but the 11yo (yes, I know) is still two stones shy of his 2020 best mark, and he is one from one at this track (all the way back in 2018).
He’d be my idea of the small bet if you wanted one, and when I woke up at silly o’clock this morning he was actually trading at [28.0] on the machine (copyright of Gary Wiltshire). He is [22.0] as this goes live.
I wouldn’t argue with Fine Interview shading favouritism over Durham Castle at [7/2], though there is precious little between that pair as this column goes live.
Wodao is a NR as at 7.33am.
Same comments apply to the 1.48pm at Haydock; plenty were balloted out of this (see below).
I wouldn’t have a strong opinion on this race but Yanifer interested me a touch at the 16s, four places, with two firms, even though the horse is drawn ten and, I’ll be honest here, I have never heard of 3lb claimer Aiden Brookes.
But there are positives, not least the draw bias is not as pronounced when it is not rattling quick (though is it obviously drying quick enough).
Chester is currently good, which is surprising given they had 34mm in a 38-hour spell earlier in the week, so it’ll be interesting to see how it rides.
Yanifer is a course regular with a win here and he finished a nose and ¾ length third in this race last season, and he shaped okay on his first start since September when a 6-length seventh to gamble Two Tempting here earlier this month.
The 7yo is fairly handicapped on his win here last August (from the widest stall in 12) and he wears a first-time hood, which his trainer (who had a 11-1 winner yesterday) is one from four with.
All in all, he rates a fair each way bet at 16s, four places.
Any 14s is fine, too, if you have to accept that.
I have had a very small bet on him at that price, and a win-only bet at 20s on the exchange (though that has now shortened into 16s).
Never So Brave has an obvious chance on his first start for Andrew Balding (people latching on to the ex-Stoute angle – this horse was actually pulled out when drawn 15 in the Two Tempting race), but he has hardly been missed in the market at 3s in one place and a general [11/4].
This is a race where the ground has totally changed my thoughts.
Earlier in the week, I’d have been of the opinion that No Half Measures was the one to beat, even though she was underwhelming on her return in the Palace House Stakes.
But she’d have much preferred it if the forecast from earlier in the week had materialised, as she loves plenty of dig, and a reproduction of her Abbaye fifth from a high draw probably makes her the top bitch.
She should handle the ground fine but softer going would have made her a far more dangerous beast, though she has at least drifted from [9/4] to [7/2] as a result, and a current 4s+ on Betfair.
Jasour is now the jolly at [5/2] as he bids to get back on track after a wind op.
It is very easy to see him winning this on his Group 1 efforts over 6f at Royal Ascot and Newmarket in the first half of last season, as he tanks through his races when on song and this 5f test could well suit.
I can see the each-way case for Balmoral Lady and Shagraan but they have both shortened in the last 24 hours and I’ll probably sit this one out.
Fahrenheit Seven has come out at 7,33am – going.
So we are already down to the dangerous dead-eight.
Keep ’em peeled.
Sprint handicaps wouldn’t be my bag but I’d be inclined to keep this simple.
If you want a bet then the [9/2] each way, four places, about Jm Jungle looks decent enough business to me.
That combination is now generally available, and I have had a modest bet on him.
The ground at York is surprisingly good, good to firm places, after they missed much of the forecast rain earlier in the week, and that should suit Jm Jungle just fine.
He has a good body of work at this course, he is in-form and he will take some pushing out of the top four, with a win an obvious and very real possibility.
The negative is he has risen to a mark of 96 for not winning, but his two seconds to American Affair read well (the winner ran well in a Group 2 at Haydock last weekend, when sent off a silly-short [10/3] – he was actually 2s for that race at one stage) and this strong traveller just looks as solid as you like.
Bleedin’ obvious alert – I agree with Duran being second favourite at [13/2], too.
A 4lb rise for his Haydock win looks okay and he is two from three around here, and the other start saw him finish a decent eighth from an unfavourable high draw of 16 (first four home were drawn 2,1,5,3).
Bergerac is available at 12+ on the exchange and that looks another fair price, as he has been coming steadily down the weights while running well.
The course winner is now 4lb lower than when third of 22 in the Ayr Silver Cup last season and he shaped well for a long way when fifth of 16 over 6f here last time.
The drop down to 5f could well suit too, and I wouldn’t lay him at the current Betfair price.
In fact, I’ve just backed him at 13.5 (he is generally 11s, four places, which is clearly fine too but that is not a betting option I could access).
In fact, he is available at 12s in one spot, four places.
That’s good business – for the backers, not the layers. I’ll try to get any 12s or 11s each way, by fair means or foul, too.
The more I looked, the more he is arguably my idea of the bet of a very quiet punting day, for what it is worth.
G’wan, Nettles.
Dead-eight alert.
The ante-post story of this race was the early money for Estrange and Shaha, who were 6s and 8s respectively on Tuesday morning.
The former’s odds lasted about as long as me in a barber’s chair, and Shaha’s price also capitulated in a very narrow window on Tuesday.
They are just [2/1] joint favourites and the betting ship has clearly sailed for both of those.
I can fully see why Shaha was cut (actually monies exchanged would have been minimal, I imagine), as she was very impressive in beating Scenic at Goodwood (the latter may have been making her reappearance but Shaha beat that 15lb-higher rated filly off levels in style) earlier in the month.
If this lightly-raced filly kicks on from there, she could prove very difficult to beat.
You have to respect Estrange clearly, but when the prices have gone for now, you have to walk away. Especially when connections would not have wanted to see the ground drying out for Estrange.
It wouldn’t surprise me if she was the one who made this race a sad seven, if connections deem it too quick for her after the earlier races have been run and the times analsyed.
This race has predictably cut up a fair bit but most of the shorter-priced ones from earlier in the week have rocked up, with the exception of Danielle – that could be significant – and the Irish.
Danielle is a 105-rated filly trained by the Gozzas and owned by Anthony Oppenheimer, but instead they have relied on her owner/stablemate Jane Temple, having her turf debut.
I was tempted by her at 16s on Tuesday but, with the Gosdens having three in the race at that stage (they also run Sueno here), I thought it was too risky.
She is now 9s in a place (the general 10s was taken yesterday) but that still could be fair.
Ish.
Big John doesn’t worry about ruining handicap marks (indeed he won this race in 2018 with a 94-rated filly who finished third in a Group 2 next time), so he throws 89-rated Jane Temple into the mix here, and she certainly looked impressive when winning under the welter burden of 10st 9lb at Kempton last time.
The form was given a slightly better tinge when the third ran a decent race when fifth in the Height Of Fashion next time.
She is going up to 1m5f188yd for the first time here, but that wouldn’t trouble me on her run-style, and the Gosdens used that Kempton race as a springboard for a subsequent Listed race winner in the past.
Indeed, the 2024 winner of that Kempton race was a certain Scenic, a[7/2] chance in this.
It’s obviously a complete guess-up against horses rated as much as 18lb her superior (she would be giving over a stone to last year’s winner Term Of Endearment, Scenic and the penalised Divina Grace in a handicap) but I’ll probably look to have a small bet on her win-only once the exchange market beefs up, and hopefully she drifts.
I’d fear [7/2] Scenic most, and she is 4s+ on the exchange.
Term Of Endearment looks too short now at 2s.
We lost seven from this at the ante-post stage – Al Shabab Storm, Balmacara, More Thunder . Myal, Norwalk Havoc, Witch Hunter and Sparks Fly – but it is an excellent Group 3 John Of Gaunt.
It is not often you get horses of the calibre of the 122-rated Audience and Kinross, both Group 1 winners, running in this grade.
And Alyanaabi, who shades favouritism at this early hour, is clearly no slouch either.
I thought it was a tricky race to call but my two against the field earlier in the week would have been Spycatcher and Room Service.
However, Spycatcher probably would prefer it much softer and I have gone off him, for all he has better claims than an exchange price of 14s+ would suggest.
He was only a short-head away from winning the Group 1 Prix Maurice de Gheest in 2023 and he arguably did well from his wide position on the track to win at Donny on his return.
Room Service is another who could do with more dig but he was a big improver last season, just chinned off a mark of 105 at York before winning a Listed race at Doncaster, and he could play a major role here if fully revved up for his return.
I have had a little nibble on him at [18.0] win-only this morning, but only for buttons.
Yanifer at 16/1 each way, four places, in 2.10pm at Chester. Available with two firms (general 14s is fine).
I have also backed Jm Jungle (9-2) and Bergerac (11s) each-way in 2.40pm at York.
Going: Good
Stick readings – Round 6.5. Stand 6.8, Centre 6.6, Inside 6.3
Soil moisture 46.26%
Saturday morning course update: 6.6mm Tuesday. 2mm Wednesday. 7mm Thursday. Saturday dry with sunny spells. 21°C
Forecast:; 2mm Saturday
Rails: All races will be run on the Outer track.
Stalls: 5f & 6f: Centre 7f, 1m: Inside 1m4f: Outside
Going: Good, good to firm in places
Going stick: 6.7, 8.25am Friday
Straight: Far Side – 6.7 Centre – 6.8: Stands Side – 6.7 Moisture meter reading; 1% Wind speed and direction for racing: SW (half behind) 13mph, gusting 31mph
Saturday morning course update: Last rainfall 1.2mm Friday morning, making 11mm in the last 7 days; 19mm since Dante. Saturday morning is dry, warm and sunny. Met Office forecast: Saturday – a largely dry with sunny intervals, chance of brief passing showers during afternoon in a brisk SW wind, 23 degrees.
Forecast: Light showers, if anything
Rails: Rail alignment +6m out from inner racing line on home bend from 9f to entrance to home straight.
Stalls: Stalls – 5f and 6f – centre; remainder inside rail.
Going: Good
Going stick: 7.3, Saturday 7am
Saturday morning course update: Dry over the last 48 hours. 27.8mm rain over last 7 days. Today is forecast to be dry with highs of 21’C and potentially gusty 15mph South Westerly winds.
Forecast: Dry
Rails: Rail out 8 yards from 6f – 1.5f. Rail out 3 yards from 1.5f – 6f.
Stalls: 1m2f – Outside Remainder – Inside
BALLOTED OUT (get your money back on these)
1.48pm Haydock: Sondad, Rohaan, Solar Aclaim, Supreme King, Irish Nectar, Musical Touch, Glorious Angel, Count D’Orsay, Hyperfocus, Mostar Dreams, Baba Reza, Rock Melody
2.10pm Chester: Alzahir, Our Havana, Lord Bertie, Eye Of Dubai, Probe, Lexington Belle, Paws For Thought, Partisan Hero, Benacre, How Impressive
William Haggas visor – Brewing, 2,10pm Chester; 3-18 (since 2010)
Harriet Bethell, hood – Yanifer, 2.10pm Chester; 1-4 (2016)
Kevin Ryan, cheekpieces – Sergeant Wilko, 1.48pm Haydock; 16-167 (2016)
1.48pm Haydock: Sergeant Wilko, Fine Interview (prom), Durham Castle, Baldomero, Dakota Gold (prom), King’s Lynn (prom), Kodi Lion (prom)
2.10pm Chester: Fair Point, Bobby Bennu (prom), Myal, Yanifer
2.23pm Haydock : Democracy Dilemma, Fahrenheit Seven, Rage Of Bamby, Balmoral Lady, Leovanni (prom)
2.40pm York: Jm Jungle (prom), Venture Capital, Zayer, Miss Attitude?, Bergerac, Loom, It Just Takes Time, Habooba, Bond Chairman (prom), Kodiac Thriller
2.58pm Haydock : Bay Of Sanibel, Invisible Friend, Our Golden One (prom), Shaha?
3.15pm York: Allonsy, Divina Grace
3.33pm Haydock: Alyanaabi?, Audience, Grey’s Monument (prom), Mount Athos, Quinault (prom), Volterra
Excellent: Charlie Appleby
Good: Richard Hannon, Andrew Balding, Hamad Al Jehani, Simon and Ed Crisford, Nigel Tinkler, T J Kent (two from three), Geoff Oldroyd (one from one), Andrew Balding, John and Thady Gosden, Ed Walker, Harry Charlton
Fair: Ralph Beckett (nearly good after a winning Friday), Clive Cox, David O’Meara, Roger Varian, Ian Williams, Steph Hollinshead, William Haggas, John and Sean Quinn, Kevin Ryan, Jack Channon, Tom Clover, Mark Walford, Tim Easterby, Tom Ward (no winners), Mick Appleby, Paul Midgley, Sam England, Robert Cowell, Richard Hughes (pretty good), Eve Johnson Houghton, Karl Burke (pretty good), Marco Botti, Owen Burrows, Stuart Williams (pretty good)
Moderate: Archie Watson, Richard Fahey, Jamie Osborne, Michael Dods, Mark Usher (10-1 second recently), Jessie Harrington, James Tate
Don’t know: Harriet Bethell (11-1 winner on Friday though, in a small sample), Henry Candy
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