By Tony Calvin - 28 October 2026
Let’s face it, the trainer and owner reaction to the prevailing ground at Wetherby (it is well-watered good, good to firm in places, so the course has done as much as it can – they will be finishing off the irrigation on Friday morning) has pretty much rendered the two-day meeting a non-punting event.
Just 37 entries on Saturday’s seven-race card – and 40 for the six contests on Friday – means I imagine that most punters will find bets pretty hard to come by.
So I’ll cover Wetherby’s racing first. Mainly to get a head-start on the column as I am travelling late morning on Friday.
You never know, I may even see a bet there (Update – there may be at least two in fact, see below).
This 2m3f handicap chase has eight runners at the moment – thanks to Kahavari being taken out and then being put back in on Thursday morning (I think) – and it’s a decent 0-125, as it stands (it is certainly a tightly-packed one with a handicap range of just 117 to 123).
But obviously it would not be in the least bit surprising if we had a NR in here.
I just went to look at the betting – and we have none at the moment (11.35am), so I better come back to this.
In fact, none of the Wetherby ITV races have revised prices back up yet, so I’m off for a walk.
I am back from said walk at 12.49pm and two outfits had priced this up, with some differences of opinion, Geoffrey.
Palamon is either 2s or 3s (Dan Skelton regularly targets this meeting and he hasn’t been deterred by the prospect of ground on the quick side – or rather he has the huge string to cater for every occasion), Marty McFly 13/2 or 11s, and Geryville 9s or 16s.
You obviously can’t tip or recommend in such early, wafer-thin markets but the 11/1 about Koukeo looked too big.
And, lo and behold, he was cut from 11s to 13/2 with the firm in question (he actually opened up 12s with them late on Thursday morning) in a matter of minutes, with 9s and 8s now the best on offer.
The 9s could still be peachy though.
Historically, I wouldn’t be a big fan of the stable at all but they have been going very well this season (and equally of late, with another 15-2 winner early on Thursday afternoon) and Koukeo looked to be given a gentle enough introduction to his campaign at Fontwell earlier this month and he got dropped 2lb for it.
That makes him well handicapped on his early-season 2026 brace over 2m (he was rated 123 after the Haydock win and he ran well off that mark at Musselburgh afterwards) and he stays this trip adequately, too.
Furthermore, Timeform agree with the official ground that two of his three career successes have come on good, although he has never raced on anything quicker.
Actually, I see his Exeter 2m5f hurdle win in April 2025 came on good, good to firm in places, so I stand corrected.
I certainly wouldn’t have a strong betting opinion but the 9s and 8s looks very fair.
Another Skelton favourite, and a stronger one here in the shape of the 5/4 poke Kateira.
She has a mixed record at this meeting, being chinned in this race in 2023 and 2024 before beating a sole rival, the then-reigning champion hurdler Golden Ace (a poorly one, granted) no less at the third attempt last year.
You can’t set your watch by her though – however, we will forgive her that tee-up job at Chepstow at a big price in handicap company earlier this month, though she was well stuffed – so she is beatable, if very much the best in here at her best.
And she is actually getting 2lb here from 11/2 poke Ooh Betty, a favourite of mine and one who will hopefully make a good fist of this from the front, even if St Irene and maybe even Watamu could give her unwanted attention on the pace (that pair are not no-hopers, by the way).
I suspect La Conquiere could be the favourite’s main rival here though and the early 4s is tempting enough.
More than that, actually.
She has an excellent record when fresh in her brief career to date and she is 6lb better off for the 1/2 length she was beaten by Ooh Betty in a Grade 2 on soft ground at Ascot in January.
The quickish ground here would be an unknown but it was good when she was a close second in the Grade 1 bumper at Aintree in 2025, so maybe the going isn’t a big concern.
And trainer Jamie Snowden is in very good nick of late.
Snowden wasn’t giving much away about her in a stable tour for the ATR website on October 20 but this is what he said:
“She was a smart bumper mare and finished second at Aintree. She proved a nice novice hurdler last year, winning a Listed novice at Newbury before just being touched off in a Grade 2 at Ascot. She didn’t come down the hill particularly well at Cheltenham, but she was running well at Aintree before making a bad mistake. She will run in a Listed race at Wetherby on Charlie Hall Chase Day.”
Again, one NR could bollocks the each way 1,2 angle but I reckon the 4s out there (and even the 7/2) could be worth such a bet at a quarter the odds.
I’d be happy with the win-only bet anyway, if there is a nonner.
This favourite is beatable.
No each-way wriggle room here (I go with wriggle, as it makes more sense than wiggle in my mind – think Ray Reardon being buried underground) with just the four runners – we would have had five but the 119-rated Heather Honey wasn’t eligible, having been dropped 1lb since her last run – and maybe it is a straight shoot-out between the market leaders Strong Leader and Take No Chances, last year’s 1-2 in this contest.
But the lack of a guaranteed pace angle could make this a messy affair, and that could give last month’s Goodwood winner Paggane an opportunity to press on again and maybe nick this from the front.
Last year’s winner Strong Leader is the class act but he ended last season with a whimper, including after a wind op prior to his Aintree run, so he comes with definite risks attached at 5/4, especially giving his three rivals 11lb.
He only saw off his main market rival Take No Chances a neck in this race last season and is 4lb worse off, so there is precious little between these two at the weights here.
The Pertemps runner-up Lavida Adiva is harder to make a cogent case for but she is only a 15/2 chance, so nobody should be falling off their chair if she cops in a race that has “Proceed With Caution” written all over it.
Six runners for a 100k Grade 2 3m chase is more of a reflection of the UK staying chasing ranks than the ground – and I’d say Haydock would bite your hand off if you offered them the chance of securing a similar number lining up at the start for the Betfair Chase next month.
Basically, without Irish involvement, the UK’s staying chases are effectively second-tier gash, with apologies to the sidelined Jango Baie.
Like everyone else, I am not sure Pic d’Orhy truly lasts home over a stamina-laden 3m against good opposition, but he is unlikely to be confronted by either here (certainly not the latter) on his first start for Skelton and a top price of 6/4 reflects that.
Handstands has a shout on his early chasing promise, and Paul Nicholls wouldn’t be Paul Nicholls if he didn’t have Hitman and Twinjets gunned for this test in a bid to roll over de la Hey – he’d love it, just love it, Keegan-stylee, if he turned over the favourite here and Thursday finally saw his stable whirring into life – but there is absolutely no incentive to have a bet here.
Pic d’Orhy, who traded at around 4/11 in running when beaten a length in this race when trained by Nicholls last season, is the rightful favourite and this is his to lose – but he may.
Let’s call a spade a spade here, it is truly woeful stuff for this 2m 0-130 handicap hurdle to only get four runners, even if a pot of 17.5k is hardly big news for an ITV race.
There is no obvious pace here either, so maybe the 11/8 favourite Race To Base will crack on and not come back.
I’ll tell you something now, though – if I am watching this race live then there will have been a significant stoppage, injury or whatever, in the live Premiership match ( I think it is Bath v Sale).
I boringly bleat on about ground and watering all the time – sometimes with my tongue firmly in cheek, which is occasionally lost on some – but you have to feel for Wetherby.
They have pitiful field sizes on both days of their Friday-Saturday meeting, despite seemingly doing all they can to attract runners with their watering policy this week (full details of which are below in the course section).
Heather Honey was confirmed for the 3m Grade 2 hurdle at 2.18pm, but she was removed from the race as, rated just 119, she wasn’t eligible (she would have been had she not been dropped 1lb from her last run), so that is just a four-runner race.
That cost connections a free few quid had she run and completed.
I’d be in favour of minimal irrigation myself but then I don’t run a National Hunt racecourse at the tail-end of a summer drought, with media right payments their driving financial force, trying to attract the maximum number of runners for their paying customers to watch and bet on.
It is currently good, good to firm in places there.
It is the same ground situation at Ascot (their watering details are below) and, despite healthier field sizes in the main, they have a couple of five-runner races on their card too, with one of those a 2m3f handicap chase, which had 18 runners at the five-day stage (and one of the five, Merely A Detail was only put in at the very last minute – £606 guaranteed for fifth place).
Six of the 10 UK and Ireland ITV races have seven runners or less then, but at least all seven stood their ground in the 3m Champion Chase at Down Royal at the overnight stage.
Each-way thieves can have the weekend off.
GOING – Chase: Good, good to firm in places; Hurdle: Good to firm, good in places
THURSDAY COURSE UPDATE: Dry for the past 24 hours to 7.30am Thursday. 34mm rain recorded through the past 7 days to Thursday morning. It is now forecast to be generally dry through to racing with some misty/foggy conditions expected at times. For access to our live weather station and for the latest Going info please go to www.ascot.com/thegoing
Weather (8.24am Thursday): Dry
Watering: Will water whole track 10mm on Friday. Watered 10mm on whole track on Wednesday. Watered 10mm on Home straight on Monday.
GOING : Good, good to firm in places
THURSDAY COURSE UPDATE: Rainfall: August: 40mm September: 30mm October: 75.5mm (of which 47mm has fallen since Fri 16th Oct) 14mm rain and strong winds on Saturday. Very strong drying winds on Sunday. 3mm rain on Monday. Dry and strong winds again on Tuesday through until about 3pm. Dry throughout Wednesday. Dry & calm overnight into Thursday, which is set to continue. The latest forecast is still dry, calm and overcast for the rest
Weather (8.24am Thursday): Dry
Watering: We have been watering extensively since July, with a further 50mm applied after the race meeting on 14th October (as at Fri 23rd Oct).
We’re continuing to water right through to close of play on Thursday afternoon / Friday AM to complete a second full cycle this week.
GOING : Good to soft
THURSDAY COURSE UPDATE: Dry over the past 24 hours/ Forecast: Thu/ Fri and Sat – Dry with daytime temps of 15c
Weather (8.24am Thursday): Dry
29 October 8.09am – The ground at Down Royal is yielding, yielding to soft in places (Hurdle) & yielding, good to yielding in places (Chase).
Possibility of 3-5mm (approx) of rain
Neil Mulholland blinkers; Transmission, 2.33pm Ascot;
Tom Lacey visor; Imperial Alex; 2.33pm Ascot;
Joe Tizzard blinkers; Rightsotom; 3.43pm Ascot;
Paul Nicholls blinkers; Fasol; 3.43pm Ascot;
1.10pm Wetherby: Geryville, Tanking Along
1.25pm Ascot: Glynn Brae, Jet To Vegas
1.45pm Wetherby: Ooh Betty, St Irene, Watamu?
2pm Ascot: Vanderpoel , Jour d’Evasion, Glengouly, Aeros Luck
2.18pm Wetherby: No obvious pace/front-runner but Strong Leader (prominent),Paggane?
2.33pm Ascot: Viroflay, Henry’s Friend, Tapley
2.55pm Wetherby: Handstands, Pic d’Orhy, The Real Whacker, Twinjets
3.15pm Down Royal (all seven have stood their ground): Affordale Fury, Croke Park, Haiti Couleurs, Heart Wood, Romeo Coolio (prom)
3.30pm Wetherby: No obvious pace/front-runner but Race To Base looks the likeliest to lead
3.43pm Ascot: Indemnity, Trustintimes (prominent), Rightsotom, Moveit Like Minnie, Fasol, Brendas Asking, Gower Prince
Good: Gordon Elliott, Andrew Slattery, Rebecca Curtis, Dan Skelton, Russell and Scudamore, Nigel and Willy Twiston-Davies, Anthony Honeyball (very small sample), Chester Williams (very small sample), Harry Fry (1 from 2), Joe Tizzard (among the winners again on Thursday, so chugging along very nicely), Olly Murphy, Chris Gordon, Christian Williams, Jamie Snowden, Parkinson and Smith, Jonjo and AJ O’Neill (just had another 15-2 winner on Thursday), Neil Mulholland (13-2 winner at Bath on Thursday)
Fair: Henry De Bromhead, Greenall and Guerriero (had a very rough Tuesday with two fatalities), Faye Bramley, James Owen (fair/good), Emma Lavelle, Patrick Neville, Hobbs and White, Sam England, Nicky Henderson, Paul Nicholls (not many runners, 10-1 and 11-8 winners on Thursday and two beaten narrowly previously, so he is coming good) , Bailey and Nicholls (13-2 and 5-2 winners on Thursday)
Moderate: Noel Meade, Joseph O’Brien, Ben Pauling, Nick Scholfield (33-1 short-head second on Thursday) , Harry Derham, Mickey Bowen
Don’t really know: Robbie Llewellyn, Toby Bulgin, Jamie and Josh Moore (new combo – Gary and Josh were in fair/good form), Sandy Thomson (0 from 6), Henry Daly (well-backed 11-8 winner at Stratford on Thursday though), Venetia Williams, David Pipe, Tom Lacey, Ryan Hatch, Hammond and Smith, Pam Sly, Ben Clarke, Ruth Jefferson, Lucinda Hughes
1.10pm Wetherby – An opening look at the ITV opener here (deliberate repetition btw…) –…
SATURDAY RACE ANALYSIS 2.33pm Ascot – Leave this to Absence or Viroflay, if they come…
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