By Tony Calvin - 30 September 2026
Firstly, the going.
They had 2.5mm of rain at Longchamp on Monday and the revised Tuesday morning penetrometer reading of 3.4 equates to a mixture of good and good to firm , I am reliably informed by those who know far better than me.
Whether they water will depend on how much rain they get through Wednesday, as it is dry and warm thereafter (2.5mm Sunday morning).
The main site I use currently has 9.3mm landing tomorrow but it was only 2.1mm in the early hours on Tuesday; changeable then, so keep an eye on that.
As 7.46am of Wednesday morning, 20mm was due from 9am (moderate thunderstorm warning in place; heavier rain in evening).
Potential game-changer for Bay City Roller etc.
Live draws are pretty much ridiculed in the UK, with the Ebor one this year a particular Tour De Farce – though they are welcomed by the accountants of those hosting… – but the French have said “Hold My Vin Rouge” when it comes to the Arc this year.
They are doing the draw behind closed doors – and under the supervision of an independent auditor, whatever that means – straight after the close of declarations at 9.30am UK time on Thursday but they will not be unveiled until the evening ceremony (I am not sure what time that kicks off but I will endeavour to miss it).
Didn’t anyone tell them that racing leaks like a sieve – and presumably connections of all the runners are told in the morning, too? (I have asked if that is indeed the case – I am awaiting an answer).
Good luck with that secretive project.
That said, I appreciate the French don’t give a stuff about UK fixed-odds betting markets and news leaking out (plus the fact that UK bookmakers, cautious at the best of times, will not be taking any lumpy bets in The Forbidden Zone). so if it works for them promotionally, then so be it.
The draw can obviously be crucial in this race, as we saw last year when the first three home came from stalls 2,1,3, with trap 5 in fourth.
Shades of Chester at Longchamp….
The pace – Maisho Tabaru (has made it), Arrow Eagle (possibly), Bay City Roller (unlikely runner?) and Friendly Soul (looks like a runner now but not sure they will go forward in a big field, though that may be draw-dependent)
It could be that Aidan O’Brien clocks the potential lack of guaranteed pace on paper and supplements a pacemaker tomorrow (though hopefully not the scalded-cat variety).
Possibly the dual Classic winner Lambourn?
It was pointed out to me that the horse was taken out of the Cadran today.
But he could utilise Minnie Hauk, I suppose, if he wants a forward-goer.
No pacemaker was added.
As at 9am on Tuesday, we had 19 in the race (there is another forfeit stage later this morning), though it could in effect be 20 if Friendly Soul takes up the free supplementary option following her win-and-you’re (WAYI) in the Prix Vermeille.
And it sounds like they are going to, which makes total sense.
Big John rolling the big dice again with a free bet.
Update: Sunly has been scratched this morning along with Pearled Majesty (more of him below), Light The Ghost and Tattycoram, too , so we are down to a maximum of 16.
As it is, we currently have 15 (Friendly Soul yet to be confirmed – think that needs to be by Wednesday), with more supplementary/elimination stages to come.
Obviously, last year’s winner Daryz sits astride the market at 7/4, and no-one could really argue with that assessment after getting back on the horse, so to speak, following that disappointing Royal Ascot third, with a fluent dismissal of Bay City Roller in the Foy last time (on ground Timeform called good to firm).
He is only a short-head away from being eight from eight at Longchamp.
As we are talking about Daryz, we may as well deal with last year’s head runner-up Minnie Hauk. The third, Sosie, was 5 1/2 lengths adrift of that pair that day.
That clearly makes her of interest at 16s (five points bigger win-only on the exchange market) but it does take a leap of faith to get with her here considering her faltering season. But her third to Kalpana in a muddling Yorkshire Oaks last time, in a race messed up by pacemaker Sugar Island, wasn’t totally devoid of promise and she handles quick ground.
Others returning from last year include the sixth Arrow Eagle (he was drawn 16 and I had a 125/1 each-way swing on him there and was a bit miffed, as he should have finished third on the deep ground in which he excels – this is Jean Claude-Rouget’s career swansong and the 52yo Ioritz Mendizabal takes the ride again, which is probably not a positive), and the seventh Kalpana , obviously on the back of an excellent season.
For some reason, Kalpana, drawn 10 and perhaps not given an optimum ride when beaten 7 lengths here last season, was one of the first off my list after that scrambling York win last time.
It is just a price thing as the general 6s (and 7s in a couple of spots) does nothing for me, for all she has a clear time and form chance.
Perhaps it should though, looking at the likely field and the merit of her King George win.
Nothing scares you, outside of the favourite.
Six of the Classic generation are set to be represented and the shortest among them is general 5s poke Maltese Cross; there is clearly plenty to like about this improver but, once again, his price does nothing for me.
And just how strong is his form anyway?
You can obviously upgrade the Derby runner-up’s narrow Grand Prix De Paris win on fast ground over course and distance in July and he won the Voltigeur in good style under a 5lb penalty last time, but I would certainly not be going overboard about either line of form in Arc-winning terms.
He looks underpriced at 5s in my book.
Thundering On is more like it at 10s ; when she is good, she is very good.
She returned coughing when weak in the market when a modest fourth in the Pretty Polly at The Curragh in July (on good to firm) but she was visually stunning in the Oaks and in the Blandford Stakes last time, for all neither victory stood out on the clock.
She has a French filly-like swagger about her and she would interest me most of the horses trading in single figures, though one outfit has just gone 10s about her.
And, maybe crucially, she would want ease in the ground.
Diamond Necklace is a general 10s and the dual French Classic winner is bang in the hunt here on her Goodwood dismissal of Friendly Soul. And I would give her a pass for her defeat by an on-song Aventure (Arc 2024 runner-up) over 1m2f on soft ground in the Prix Romanet last time.
She is a very plausible winner, for all 1m4f is an unknown.
BUT, with Thundering On and Friendly Soul in here, will connections be tempted by the Opera (over 1m2f) again? (an observation nicked from Ande Humphrey on X…)
I haven’t warmed to her stablemate Benvenuto Cellini at all this season, and the Irish Derby winner has a lot to prove here. That is why he is 25s, though.
Varandir, stablemate/ownermate of Daryz, is a fair second bullet for his connections and he currently trades as the 16/1 seventh favourite. That’s a fair price.
Fourth to Maltese Cross in that bunch finish, he cut down the pacemaker won and nicely in the Prix Niel, but I thought Pearled Majesty shaped very well under a gentle ride in third in that race, so I went looking for a price about him, only to see he had just been scratched along with Sunly, Tattycoram and Light The Ghost.
Maybe they wanted a lot more ease for him, and Ascot in October is apparently the plan there now (though it may be even quicker in Berkshire…).
Bright Light is the other 3yo in the race and it would take a bit of explaining if he won, looking at the balance of his form. But this is only his seventh start, having made his debut in April, and he looked a strong stayer at this 1m4f trip when sticking on into third behind Saddadd in the Grosser Preis Von Baden last time.
Having watched that race a couple of times, I probably wouldn’t be as dismissive about his chance as Betfair quotes of 200.0+ suggest , though maybe he would want a bit more dig than is likely to make his remote chance a more plausible outside one.
He is 100s, three places at the moment (all firms are three places, which is probably doing little for ante-post trade).
That said, if he is 100/1+ on the day with extra place (s) – which he surely will be, if running – I could be tempted to part with a few quid. I have never heard of his regular jockey Benjamin Marie, who did look a bit rustic at Baden-Baden, to be fair.
It worked for Luke Morris on Alpinista in 2022, mind you…
And thanks to the person who just pointed out to me that that Bright Light is actually in the sales on Friday (sold with the Arc entry included).
If I can beat off Godolphin, Wathnan Racing and Al Shaqab (none of whom have a runner this year), I may buy him for added interest.
I’m at a loose end on Sunday afternoon outside of the Saracens-Sale match, and a bag should seal the deal for a 100-1 poke, shouldn’t it?
And I fancy seeing off the owners, above come what may…
I was going to be lukewarm about the aforementioned Saddadd, as that German form last time clearly needs a lot of improving on to be winning this, but there is no upside to dismissing him at 40s. That German Group 1 win last time was his first attempt at the 1m4f trip and he clearly got it well enough.
And the more you look at this race, the more it would be foolish to rule out the most unlikely of results.
If Daryz underperforms, this is ripe for an upset.
We have already mentioned Friendly Soul and if she takes up her WAYI golden ticket on Wednesday then she would be another coming in here after winning at the first attempt at the Arc trip last time out. And she looked pretty good when making all in the Vermeille to be fair.
I have no idea whether she will take her chance, though.
Tomorrow will tell us.
If truth be told, I haven’t a clue about the relative merits of the Japanese pair Meisho Tabaru and Admire Terra, 33s and 50s respectively, and I am not going to pretend otherwise. But everyone says they all love good/quick ground over there and a glance at the former’s Takarazuka Kinen Group 1 win in June, from Croix Du Nord and Danon Decile, horses we know well enough, suggests there could be punting legs in him at 33/1.
And, let’s be fair, the 57yo Yutaka Take rode him to that success, so the horse must be good….
I assume Take will be riding the 5yo again here though, and that would be a concern.
He looked all of his years at the Shergar Cup in August, though he did finish third on one of his five mounts there.
George Scott and his owners will be hoping that Longchamp cops all of that 9mm, and more, on Wednesday to allow his Bay City Roller, out to 25s after the dry spell, to take his chance.
On testing ground, he’d play a leading role but that clearly seems unlikely.
And Scott said he wouldn’t run the horse on watered ground, with Plan B being the Champion Stakes at Ascot.
He may have the same problem there, though.
It was good to firm when he was second to Daryz in the Foy, and I’d be tempted to take my chances if I owned him.
Sure, he ideally wants more dig but Timeform have him down as running a number of good efforts in defeat on good to firm since winning on it on his debut.
The last one to mention (I think) is Chestnut Rocket, the outsider of the field at 200/1.
If anyone can make a cogent place claim for that one, I’d be impressed, for all he ran a career best in splitting Al Aasy and Arrow Eagle in deep ground at Deauville last time.
I think I have mentioned all 15 currently in the race, as well as likely supplement Friendly Soul – and, just a reminder trainers and owners can supplement on Wednesday, so we may get a surprise addition, but hopefully not a scalded-cat pacemaker, Aidan – so what’s the conclusion?
Obviously, how much rain they get tomorrow is going to have a huge bearing on the race – as is how much the course will water afterwards, if they don’t get a lot.
As for betting conclusions, as we now stand?
The first is that Daryz is probably not a bad price at 7/4 (2s+ on the exchange, and I wouldn’t be in a rush to lay the 3.25 as at 5.47pm on Tuesday myself) given the underwhelming depth of the race, but we have the unknown draw to factor in at this stage.
Thundering On makes the most appeal of the others immediately behind him at 10s from a talent and form upside perspective, but she may need some cut to be at her best, so that certainly tempers enthusiasm from an ante-post perspective.
Meisho Tabaru looks overpriced on talent at 33s but if Take rides (which he does), then that’d be a concern for me.
And others, no doubt.
As for a wild swing, I like Bright Light (currently for sale – see above) best at three figures. He has shades of Highwayman about him, having only made his debut in April and has been placed in Group 1 company on his last two starts, and he could surprise.
He shapes like a stayer and presumably wants more testing conditions, but I can see the 3yo coming home well if there is a fast and furious pace.
And hopefully a pace collapse.
It may well be shades of Arrow Eagle last year, close to placing at huge odds but no cigar, but I suspect I could be playing him each-way at the weekend.
Let’s see what the weather does.
GOING : Good, good to firm in places (from good to firm after 10mm of watering)
GOING STICK : 6.8, Wed 8am
WEDNESDAY COURSE UPDATE: Threat of showers on Wednesday (2mm). Thurs / Fri and Sat – Dry and cloudy with the odd sunny spell, daytime high of 20c.
Weather (7.46am Wednesday): 2mm Wednesday then dry
Watering: 10mm applied on Tuesday
GOING : Good to firm
GOING STICK : Straight: 7.9. Round: 6.9. Soil Moisture 39% (Wed 7.30am)
WEDNESDAY COURSE UPDATE: 0.4mm rain recorded through the past 24 hours to 8am Wednesday. Occasional showers are possible through to Thursday. Friday and Saturday currently look dry. For access to our live weather station and for the latest Going info please go to www.ascot.com/thegoing
Weather (7.46am Wednesday): 2.7mm then dry
Watering: Watered Straight Course 5mm on Tuesday morning. Watered Straight Course 10mm on Friday. Watered Round Course 5mm overnight to Tuesday and 5mm Thursday to Friday morning.
GOING : Good
GOING STICK : 7.3, Wed 2pm
Rails: The inside 8m of the home straight is being verti-drained on Monday ahead of the race meeting.
The inside line of the straight mile chute (a 5m width where the vehicles drive) remains dolled off from the 1m start down to just before the 5f start. Additionally, we have reinstated the rail along the inside line in the home straight, which is dolled out from around the 4f pole down to the just after the 2f pole, after which it cuts away.
WEDNESDAY COURSE UPDATE: Dry & settled on Monday with sunny spells. Dry & overcast on Tuesday. Dry, warm and breezy on Wednesday (22C). The outlook is generally dry, bright & settled through to the weekend, except for a possible, light, passing shower on Friday at the moment.
Weather (7.46am Wednesday): 2.9mm Wednesday; 1.7mm Friday
Watering: 2mm irrigation being applied overnight into Thursday to replace lost moisture.
LONGCHAMP (Saturday-Sunday)
GOING: Good, good to firm in places (their current reading of 3.3 equates to good/good to firm on Turftrax scale)
Turftrax – going stick 8.5; good, good to firm in places
Wednesday update
Penetrometer reading on Wednesday morning: 3.3 (dry yesterday)
Weather (7.46am Wednesday): Warm and sunny; 20mm Wednesday (starting around 9am; heavier in evening) – MODERATE THUNDERSTORM WARNING ON WEDNESDAY
1pm Newmarket: A Bear Affair (due to run on Thursday), Maliqui, Night In Vegas
1.15pm Ascot: Awaken, Domina Ignis, Forty Years On, Just A Girl, Midnight Tango, Nariko, Oolong Poobong, Secret History, The Prettiest Star, Machadadorp, Zen Diva
1.35pm Newmarket: Precise, True Love (Longchamp entries), Fallen Angel (Longchamp)
1.50pm Ascot: Nariko, Aramram, Corolla Point, Diligent Harry , Fandom, Hollywood Treasure, King Of Light, Lifeplan, Poatan, Regional, Tuco Salamanca, Luna A Inbhir Nis, Redorange
2.10pm Newmarket: Guildmaster
NB: Evanesco, Lord d’Or, Nightime Dancer – in early-closers on Oct 9/10
2.25pm Ascot: NONE SO FAR
3pm Ascot: Copacopana Sands, Hidden Force, Midnight Tango, Nariko, Sondad, Aramram, Corolla Point, Diligent Harry, Hollywood Treasure, Lifeplan, Poatan, Regional, Tuco Salamanca, Kind Of Blue (due to run on Wednesday), Extremely Zain. Monteille
3.20pm Redcar : Night In Vegas
3.35pm Ascot : Elarak, Forty Years On, Valvano, Machadadorp, Collecting Coin, First Legion, Ironwill, The Angel King
NB: A lot of these have an Oct 17 option too
3.55pm Redcar: Awaken, Copacopana Sands, Domina Ignis, Elarak, Forty Years On, Hidden Force, Just A Girl, Midnight Tango, Nariko, Oolong Poobong, Secret History, Sondad, The Prettiest Star, Valvano
THE ARC FROM EVERY ANGLE (that I could think of anyway….) Going Firstly, the…
On this week’s Pod: Intro: Affordability Checks @ Labour Party Conference (0-9mins) Racing Review: On…
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