TONY CALVIN: ITV RACING ON SATURDAY – I’ve started with the non-Donny races

1.30pm Chester – This is Dubai Honour’s to lose, but the price tells you that

It’ll be disappointing if Dubai Honour can’t get the job done here, meeting far inferior horses off levels (obviously the 33/1 outsider Uluru gets 5lb as a mare).

But his best price of 5/6 tells you that. He is as short as 8/13 in a place.

If Cieren Fallon keeps it simple, sits second behind likely leader Grey Cuban and out of trouble, then it will be disappointing if he can’t outclass these, having 11lb and more in hand of this field.

If you are looking for negatives at the price, he is an 8yo now and meets younger horses in Plage De Havre and Too Soon who come in here at the peak of their powers. And the latter, a tempting enough 8s chance in truth, really has taken off since getting a bit of dig and being fitted with cheekpieces.

I’m happy to watch.

That went live at 2.30pm on Thursday.

1.45pm Doncaster – Castle could be King here but his reputation proceeds him

Just the six in this 7f Group 2 Champagne Stakes, but the betting and chat suggests Newmarket winner Desert Castle could be another top-notch juvenile for Charlie Appleby and Godolphin.

Of course, the bare form and the time of his debut success doesn’t warrant quotes of between 10/11 and 6/5 here – the second and third from that race have been roundly humped since – but we saw the same story on Thursday, when I was very sceptical about Musical Times, who had plenty to find, and she just scraped home by 7 1/2 lengths…

Desert Castle needs to improve the best part of a stone to beat even one of his five rivals home – they are all rated 100+ and are no mugs – but clearly plenty think this regally bred Frankel colt will.

I can’t have him at the price, though you have to accept he is a possible worldie (well a Group-class horse) and possibly you may want to take him out of the equation and play in the Without Favourite markets when they appear.

Solario third and 7/1 chance Breacher could be the one to give him most trouble, for all he probably needs an extra furlong, but it isn’t a race that I have much interest in getting involved in – at the moment.

2.05pm Chester – 10/1 Stressfree will hopefully not having me shouting at the TV again

People have to be mindful of criticism straying into abuse when it comes to jockeys, but let’s just say Mark Winn rode Stressfree sub-optimally at Haydock last week.

I appreciate he was beaten a long way into fourth and no-one is saying he would have got within hailing distance of the hugely impressive winner (or maybe even the runner-up), but it was obvious hold-up horses had little chance that day and yet he was still anchored last turning in.

To say I was cursing at an early point would be an understatement.

Sorry, Mark.

The ride, or maybe the instructions, lacked thought, shall we say. And, as it was, he could only stay on timidly from the rear, missing out on third by a head.

At 10s, four places, I have to give him – and Winn – another chance and spin here, each way.

I appreciate the horse tends to be ridden chilly but hopefully Winn can sit handier here as the horse has his first attempt at 2m (well, 1m7f196yd). You don’t want to be making up too much ground when the stamina tank is running on empty; it makes far more sense to be much nearer than usual here.

I quite like the angle of him stepping up in trip though, as he often gets going all too late, and the handicapper dropped him another 1lb for that Haydock run.

He is one well handicapped horse at the moment, and hopefully he can get a midfield position from his draw in six, and a bit of dig is fine.

He won on his only start here, over an extended 1m2f on soft back in 2024 – in fact, that win came on this card.

This is Chester and all the hard luck stories that accompany the place, but he has a fair bit going for him in an open race.

2.20pm Doncaster – 11/2 Getreadytorumble is the right favourite

Trefor is an early NR.

My shortlist of three in this 20-runner Portland are Getreadytorumble (11/2), Apollo One (7/1) and Rosario (10/1) – so hardly Einstein-stuff given the prices.

And, to be honest with you, I am probably a shade of odds-against to have a bet such is my line on originality.

But if I do, it will be Getreadytorumble , who I have down as far better than a 102-rated horse.

Though he hasn’t shown it so far, admittedly.

Well, not since his reappearance anyway.

Normally, being drawn 20 or 21 would be a big negative for me but there is pace all around him, and Tom Marquand can hopefully tuck in not far off the pace and put the pedal to the metal in the final furlong.

He looked set for a very good season when an unlucky third to Mission Central at Naas in April but it simply hasn’t happened for him since, including when I thought he should have won at Ascot last time.

The handicapper may have thought so too, as he upped him 2lb for that 1/2 length second, and the ground-versatile performer is surely primed to run a massive race here.

He won a 5f handicap at this meeting last season and hopefully you won’t do any damage if you can back him at 5s, six places, available with three firms.

The 11/2 , five places, is obviously fine, too.

Sometimes it is best to stick with the obvious – even in 2o-runner sprint handicaps.

2.55pm Doncaster – 6/5 Thunder needs to show More oomph

The dead-eight in the 7f Group 2 Park Stakes – the Doncaster Cup was another example of why each-way punters should tread carefully if betting so far out in these situations  – and it will be fascinating to see which way More Thunder goes in the market.

At his best, down in grade, he really should be taking care of these, as top-priced quotes of 6/5 suggests.

But he could be wearing thin with punters now after five defeats on the bounce.

Of course, he should be winning this with something to spare on his Lockinge and Queen Anne seconds, but he has been relatively underwhelming on his last two starts (a poor ride at Ascot two outings ago, aside) and some may question if the winning attitude still burns bright in the 5yo.

I don’t have any issue with him coming back to 7f, as there is plenty of pace in here (see below), and the race promises to be run to suit his strong-finishing style.

I think he wins but I wouldn’t bet on it at 6/5 and each-way punters looking to side against him are better off waiting til much nearer the off.

3.55pm Leopardstown – Could 10/1 Memphis walk this?

ITV have managed to slot the nine-runner Group 1 1m Matron Stakes at Leopardstown in to their Saturday schedule.

There is some deadwood in here – which is good news for the World Pool, who want a minimum of seven declared runners (it may not be a coincidence here) – but there is no denying there are proper Group 1 horses on show, and I wouldn’t quibble with Blue Bolt heading the market at 6/4.

Initially , I didn’t have a strong betting opinion but I loved the way City Of Memphis travelled and quickened up to beat Carolina Jetstream in a Group 2 at the Curragh last time.

The issue with backing her at 10s is that she hasn’t been seen since that victory in May, but maybe Paddy Twomey purposely gave her a rest after three quick early-season runs with a back-end campaign in mind.

Very French-like, if so. And master planner Twomey has been a patient man with this filly.

She is 12lb shy of Blue Bolt on official ratings, but I have a feeling she could hit the frame here – and maybe something more.

I am going to have a little nibble each-way at the general 10s.

STATS/INFO SECTION

1.COURSE DETAILS

DONCASTER 

GOING :  Good, good to soft in places

GOING STICK : 6.0, Friday 7.45am

Soil Moisture 40.2%

Rails: Round Course – Fresh strip from previous two days. Innermost racing line.

Stalls: Straight – Centre Round – Inner

FRIDAY COURSE UPDATE: 1mm rain yesterday and overnight. Today – mainly dry with sunny spells, 20C Saturday – overcast with some showers forecast 20C Sunday – mainly dry with some sunny spells, 21C Gentle breeze throughout

Watering: We have not watered the track since the 18th August – this was to aid recovery from our last meeting on the 15th August

Weather (8.08am Friday): Dry Friday; 1.3mm Saturday

CHESTER

GOING :  Good to soft, soft in places

GOING STICK : 5.9, Fri 7.15am

Rails: Rail will be back on the inside line. Distances as measured.

Stalls: 1m2f – Outside Remainder – Inside

FRIDAY COURSE UPDATE: 0.4mm rain over the last 24 hours. 25mm rain over the last 7 days. Low chance of a light shower late this morning before becoming dry and bright from lunchtime with highs of 17’C and an 11mph North Westerly breeze.

Weather (8.08am Friday):  Dry today; 1.8mm Saturday

LEOPARDSTOWN – Good

11 September 7.56am – The ground at Leopardstown remains good. Dry today with rain overnight (3-5mm approx). Mainly dry thereafter

2.BALLOTED OUT RUNNERS  (get your money back on these)

2.20pm Doncaster: Sir Yoshi, We Never Stop, Hucklesbrook, Vantheman, Fortification, Changeofmind, Manila Scouse, Rajaking, Boston Dan, Venture Capital (The Man wasn’t confirmed so no money back there)

3.FIRST-TIME HEADGEAR STATS (four of the six headgear angles are positives at level stakes at SP)

Karl Burke cheekpieces; Dunkeld Dreamer, 2.05pm Chester; 23-275 (8%) -115.89 pts at SP

Julie Camacho visor; Desert Falcon, 2.20pm Doncaster; 7-51 (14%) +39.25 pts at SP

Charlie Appleby cheekpieces; Wise Approach, 2.55pm Doncaster; 49-197 (25%) +34.34 pts at SP

Joseph O’Brien cheekpieces; Enceladus, 3.35pm Doncaster; (just flat) 29-270 (10%) -104.53 pts at SP

Andrew Balding cheekpieces; Galiyan, 3.35pm Doncaster; 31-227 (14%) +21.32 pts at SP

T J Kent cheekpieces; Pinatubo’s Legacy, 4.15pm Doncaster; 2-11 (18%) +31.00 pts at SP

4.PACE MAPS (manually assessed)

1.30pm Chester: Dubai Honour? (drawn 4), Grey Cuban (2)

1.45pm Doncaster (limited evidence):  Gentle Hurricane (prom – 6)

2.05pm Chester: Spirit Mixer (12), Granite Bay (5), Dunkeld Dreamer (11), Pole Star (prom – 4)

2.20pm Doncaster: Air Force One (17), The Strikin Viking (9), Toca Madera (11), Desert Falcon (3), Schrodinger’s Cat (2), Apollo One (5), I’m Next (11), Station X (16), Eternal Sunshine (19), Jel Pepper (14) – Trefor is a NR

2.55pm Doncaster:  Myal (4), Qirat (1), Volterra (2), Witness Stand (3)

3.35pm Doncaster:  Action (8), Golden Story (11), Hatteen (3)

3.55pm Leopardstown: Carolina Jetstream, Fallen Angel

4.15pm Doncaster: Bullet Point? (9), Mister Winston? (17), Blue Courvoisier (15), River King (4), Scoville (6), Henlein (10)

5.TRAINERFORM (manually assessed ; form going into Friday)

Good: Karl Burke (very good), Richard Spencer (very good), Charlie Appleby (very good),  William Haggas, John and Thady Gosden (very good),  Andrew Balding (treble on Tuesday), Tim Easterby (excellent for him winners-wise), David Simcock,  Ralph Beckett, Hamad Al Jehani, William Knight, Stuart Williams

Fair:  Kevin Ryan (fair/good),  Richard Hannon (improving),   Jack Channon (25-1 winner on Thursday), Aidan O’Brien, Ed Bethell, George Boughey, Joseph O’Brien, Charles Hills, David O’Meara,  Oliver Cole,  Michael Herrington (fair/good), Jim Goldie, , Muir and Grassick (22-1 winner on Wednesday), Mick Appleby, Grant Tuer, Roger Teal, Dr Richard Newland, Faye Bramley, John and Sean Quinn, Gary and Josh Moore, Jarlath P Fahey, Adrian McGuinness, Llewellyn and Williams, Julie Camacho, Paddy Twomey, Daniel McLoughlin, Joseph G Murphy, Robson De Aguiar (not great of late)

Moderate: Clive Cox (11-2 winner on Tuesday;  and good second on Thursday and a 5-4 winner – fair/moderate), Hugo Palmer, Ian Williams (22-1 winner on Thursday), Charlie Johnston , Brian Ellison, Bryan Smart (fair-moderate), David Menuisier, Denis Gerard Hogan

Don’t know:  T J Kent, Geoff Oldroyd, Charalambous and Clutterbuck,  Steph Hollinshead, William Durkan