By Tony Calvin - 8 April 2026
No movement of any note in the 1.45pm. Maybe Jazzy Matty 8s from 10s.
Again, very little happening in the 2.20pm. Gold Dancer the current favourite at 7/2.
Sober Glory is top-priced at 8/13 in the 2.55pm currently but he is 1.8 on Betfair.
And now 1.87 at 9.30am, and maybe set to get even bigger – I have got involved now, but cowardly-small.
It’s a bet I won’t enjoy, win or lose!
In the 3.30pm, Gidleigh Park was 8s yesterday and is now a general 4s.
In the 4.05pm, Ile Atlantique was 10s in a place yesterday and is now a general 13/2 chance, but he is 8s+ on the exchange.
In the 4.40pm, No Drama This End is into 7/2 and that could be coming under pressure. Talk To The Man has drifted to a more realistic price at 12s, and 14s win-only on the exchange. I have backed him at 14s.
In the 5.15pm, Sherminator is into 5s and could be about to challenge Harry Lowes (4s) for favouritism. The Mighty Celt is into 8s, having been 14s yesterday.
A maximum field of 22 for this 2m4f handicap hurdle, with loads balloted out (see below – get your ante-post money back on those on the list please) , so you don’t need me to tell you how competitive this is and how hard it is to solve.
There is only a stone between top and bottom weight, that’s how close-knit this handicap is.
Jazzy Matty is the fascinating one in here, racing off 17lb lower over hurdles than he would be in a chase. And he was just denied in a thriller in the Grand Annual, so he comes in here in top nick.
He is a general 10s chance (and three points or so bigger win-only in the early exchange market) , and I suppose the issue with him is the trip as well as the hurdles element. That may sound silly given he has won up to 2m5f but all his best form has come at the minimum trip.
I have had a small each-way bet on Ike Sport at the generally available 25/1, five places (the 20s, six places is okay too).
Well small-ish, but still my biggest on Friday.
He ran a good race when ninth in the Pertemps last time and I think there is a fair bit of evidence that this 2m4f trip suits him far better than that 3m (or at least a strongly-run 2m4f, as this should be – see pace map).
He travelled pretty well into his race at Cheltenham before fading slightly, and maybe they detected a bit of a problem with his wind there as he wears a tongue-tie again here. He has worn that for all his best efforts, including a runaway Sandown win off just a 2lb lower mark in 2024.
He runs off a 1lb lower mark than the Pertemps, with Harry Atkins taking 7lb off (he probably deserves to be still be claiming 7lb, admittedly), and he has run well on both of his hurdle starts at this track.
Indeed, he is 3lb lower than when fifth to Wellington Arch in this very race last year (has a 17lb pull for 10 1/2 lengths with the winner here) and the stable are going well enough, too
The 25s with an extra place is how I have played this.
I know he was 50s, 40s and 33s yesterday, but rushing out these columns 48 hours in advance is not really on, unless there is a personal reason to.
Jet To Vegas isn’t a bad 33s each way poke, five places, either off a falling mark of 133.
Just the one no-show at the overnight stage, so we have a dangerous dead-eight runners for this Grade 1 3m1f novices’ chase – for now at least.
It’s clearly a very winnable Grade 1 and it could be that Willie Mullins lands it, despite sending over one of his lesser novice chase lights (and that may be a touch harsh) in Gold Dancer, a [4/1] chance here.
In fact, when I first looked at this race on Thursday morning, five horses ranged from 4s to [11/2] at best prices, with 12s bar, which highlights that this contest certainly lacks a stand-out.
I definitely don’t see a future Gold Cup winner in here, and this race has thrown up those in the recent past, with the likes of Native River and Inothewayurthinkin.
Anyway, Gold Dancer may well be the one to beat if reproducing his second off 152 in the 2m4f+ Jack Richards at Cheltenham over this longer trip – but that’s a fair if I guess, even around here on decent ground.
I think he is the best horse though in terms of ability but it’s not a race I warmed to from a betting point of view.
I wouldn’t be one to be backing at odds-on in horseracing too often, but I must admit that the [8/13] about Sober Glory here is a decent bet for those bolder than me (you can’t be balder).
And he currently trades at [1.66] on Betfair as I type this at 7.28am on Thursday.
To put it bluntly, this Grade 1 is as weak as a kitten (although some of those can be feisty fuckers), and Sober Glory is head and shoulders above the opposition.
The Time Bandits were purring about his chances leading up to the Supreme and he was a big mover after final decs time, going off at [9/2] and running a superb race to finish second to Old Park Star, with today’s rival Baron Noir 6 lengths behind.
He jumped brilliantly out in front but, sod’s law for his backers, he met the last wrong and that could have cost him victory – he traded 1.44 in running.
If he runs up to that form (and there is always that doubt at this meeting), he will take care of this lot with something to spare.
He is now available at 4/6 as at 4.56pm, and [1.69].
No way I’d lay that.
He is now 1.74 as at 8.05am on Friday…and has actually hit 1.93 this morning.
I don’t think anyone could argue that this isn’t a decent renewal, but I come at all races from the prism of punting – and make no apologies for doing so – and I don’t like the betting shape of this Grade 1 at all.
I can fully see the case for Heart Wood and Grey Dawning, which is why they are priced up at [6/4] and [15/8] tops, but each-way punters are playing for two places in the main (some firms are going 1,2,3 but you will pay for that in terms of price) and that is not bet-inducing.
Granted, the top two don’t have a lot in hand on official ratings over the opposition – very little in fact, with Solness actually rated 1lb higher than Grey Dawning – but it just looks a no-bet race, all over.
By the way, there may only be seven runners in this, but it will be a burn-up if the pace map below if any guide.
I imagine the tactics of some could/will be tweaked accordingly but the pace scenario could suit Heart Wood and 12s poke (not a bad price, that) L’Eau Du Sud.
Prairie Wolf, Theatre Native and Jipcot are NRs.
You suspect that Plate plot job Madara got away lightly with a 10lb rise for that sauntering 7 1/2 length defeat of Will The Wise.
The runner-up, who carried 2lb overweight and beat the third by 1 3/4 lengths, effectively races off the same mark here so you can see why the pair head the betting at [9/2] and 9s respectively.
Madara is probably a decent win-only price at around [11/2] on the exchange as this goes live at 1.22pm on Thursday, to ensure you don’t lose if he wins (it must have been galling for those who backed him off the same mark at Kempton previously to hear the horse talked of in such gushing Graded terms afterwards).
Luck will be needed as much as judgement here in this 29-runner Topham though – we lost Theatre Native at 10.02am on Thursday as he was coughing, which must have been equally galling (I have deliberately duplicated that word) for connections of the balloted out Leader In The Park – even if you can walk through most of the Grand National fences these days.
No matter what anyone says, that is a sad sight for us old-timers.
Ile Atlantique was a stand-out 10s as this race analysis went live. I can see it but I wanted bigger, and I struggled to find a bet of any note here.
I may have a few quid on Excello win-only at around 33s on the exchange, even if he is 4lb out of the handicap and has a good ole blunder in him.
Indeed, he took the second-last home with him in this race last season (was probably beaten at the time but it wasn’t definite) but he ran well here when third in the Grand Sefton in November and he has his chance.
Viroflay is currently trading at 33s too and 28s fixed-odds (the firm that offer that are going six places, which looks a decent combo for those who can), and he may even be a better bet.
The 9yo is progressive and ran a career-best when second to Califet En Vol at Kempton last time, and I think he remains well handicapped off a 1lb higher mark here and is primed to give Olive Nicholls a good spin. His attacking style will hopefully give punters a good run for their money, and keep the horse out of trouble.
He is the best of the outsiders to my eye but this is tenner, throwaway stuff.
Another race which is very hard to call.
This is also another very winnable Grade 1 (that basically translates as Mullins, Elliott and Henderson don’t have runners) and I have been looking forward to seeing Talk To The Man again ever since he made a big impression on me when winning at Newbury in late February.
However, I have to say that even a best-priced 8s is skinny enough for him (by the way Paul Nicholls says Harry Cobden rides him as Sam Twiston-Davies will hook up with No Drama This End next season – and presumably Talk To The Man too, to be fair).
I say 8s is skinny as Talk To The Man has yet to do it form-wise or on the clock, but I did love the way he lengthened on the run-in to win over 2m4f+ at Newbury and this winning ex-pointer could relish the step up to 3m under Rules.
I’ll only back him if I get double figures. Price is all
But, again, this’ll be a score-only job and it is now he has drifted. Low-level stuff again.
Mr McLoughlan is a NR as at 8.35am (temperature).
Harry Lowes is obviously the sexy one in here and he is priced accordingly at quotes ranging from [7/2] to [9/2].
He beat the Supreme talking horse (and flop) Mighty Park in a point in April 2025 and he is two from two over this trip of 2m over hurdles since, his two defeats coming over 2m4f.
The form of his Bangor win last time was franked a touch when the runner-up won next time (at 4s-on, mind you) and you suspect we are dealing with a very well handicapped and unexposed horse off a mark of 124 (admittedly that is high enough on his bare form to date), given the style of the Bangor win (picked up impressively when switched to get daylight on the outside after the last and was dominant at the line to see off two last time-out winners) and that point form.
He has yet to do it on the clock, but I wouldn’t like to lay the [9/2] myself and I have just managed to get a small bit of that price, each-way.
I’m currently looking at bigger-priced alternatives, though. Back shortly.
I am back.
Faye Bramley has never put a visor on a horse before, but she does so with No Ordinary Joe here and with Glengouly on Saturday.
How the horse will react to it is anyone’s guess but he took to initial cheekpieces well at Ascot three starts ago , and more importantly the horse is available at 33/1 each way (and six places to boot for those with access).
That looks too big to me.
As a 10yo, he is clearly a shadow of the horse he was when a 143-rated performer when with Nicky Henderson but he runs off a career-low mark of 120 here and is some 4lb lower than when a good fifth in the aforementioned Ascot race in February (I thought he was in with a big shout there 2 out over 2m3f+).
I think a strongly-run 2m will suit him here and 33s , with those extra places, looks good to me.
Harry Lowes could take some whacking, though.
It’s another low-level punting day; I don’t think I have ever had a quieter betting day at a major Festival than Aintree on Thursday (my biggest bet was a non-runner and I only ended up having one other).
Good luck.
Ike Sport at 25/1 each way in 1.45pm (get best price-place terms your accounts allow)
MILDMAY Course: Good to soft, good in places (Going stick – Hurdles: 5.3; Chase: 5.4 – Friday 8.30am)
NATIONAL Course – Good to soft (Going stick 5.3 – Friday 9.30am)
Friday course update: 0.8mm rain Wed, 0.8mm Thurs, 0.2mm Fri, 0.4mm Sun, 0.2mm so far Thurs. Forecast: Some sunny spells Friday but also periods of cloud cover; forecast dry through the day. Showers developing early hours of Saturday morning (2-5mm), clearing mid-morning for a partly sunny day.
Watering: Watered last Thursday (8-10mm), Friday (5-6mm), Sat morning (5-6mm), Mon (8-10mm), Tues (8-10mm), Wed (6-8mm). 5mm applied to the course after racing on Thursday.
Latest yr.no forecast (7.50am Friday): 0.5mm Friday, 9mm Saturday
1.45pm: Doc McCoy, Sherminator, Static, Kosac d’Oudairies, Harry Lowes, Irandando Has, Hamsiyann, Masked Dance, Pourquoi Pas Papa, Authentic Legacy, A Different Kind, Le Tiep’s Sacre
4.05pm: Leader In The Park, Statuario, Bleu d’Enfer, St Denis’s Well
5.15pm: Bibe Mus, Thank You Blue, Indian River, Give Him A Chance, Different Kind, Lord, Count Of Vendome, Ice In The Veins, Newtown Rambler, Munsif, Across Earth, Knock Off Soxs
Dan Skelton hood; Sinnatra, 2.55pm; 10-46 since 2013
Dan Skelton, cheekpieces; Grey Dawning, 3,30pm; 22-135 (2016)
Denis Gerard Hogan cheekpieces; Frankie John, 4.40pm; 7-151 (2016)
Faye Bramley visor; No Ordinary Joe, 5.15pm; 0-0
1.45pm: Fiercely Proud, Wellington Arch, Swindon Village, Jet To Vegas?, Hot Fuss?, Bowmore, Top Jimmy, Sir Galahad
2.20pm : Doyen Quest, Miami Magic, Regent’s Stroll
2.55pm : Sober Glory (looks sure to lead), Sinnatra, Storming George
3.30pm : Gidleigh Park, Grey Dawning, JPR One, Heart Wood (prom), Saint Segal, Solness
4.05pm: Il Est Francais, Matata, Croke Park, Eldorado Allen, Will The Wise, Soul Icon?, Coming Up Easy, Viroflay, Conflated?, O’Moore Park (prom), Mahons Glory, Lisnamult Lad, Bill Baxter, Pour Les Filles, Jipcot – Theatre Native and Prairie Wolf are NRs
4.40pm : Catchintsavo, Dalston Lad, Kripticjim (prom), Seaniecon, Talk To The Man – No Drama This End is a NR
5.15pm: Laafi, Captain Ryan Matt, Rubber Ball (prom), Litleangel Duseuil, Static, Ehteyat, Wandering Ego, Pourqoui Pas Papa, Afadil
Good: Dan Skelton (winner of the bumper on Thursday), Nicky Henderson (Grade 1 winner on Thursday), Paul Nicholls (double away from Aintree on Thursday but few ran well in Liverpool), Harry Fry (winner on Wednesday), Gary and Josh Moore (winner on Wednesday), Emmet Mullins, Olly Murphy, Jamie Snowden
Fair: Warren Greatrex, Faye Bramley, Willie Mullins, Gordon Elliott (Grade 1 double on Thursday), Henry De Bromhead (Grade 1 winner on Thursday), Ben Pauling, Joe Tizzard, Nigel and Willy Twiston-Davies, Alan King, Neil Mulholland (9-1 winner on Wednesday, and another on Thursday), Jonjo and AJ O’Neill, Gavin Cromwell, , Russell and Scudamore, Cian Collins. Mickey Bowen (fair/moderate), Anthony Honeyball (4-5 winner on Wednesday), Stuart Edmunds (fair/moderate), Hobbs and White, Dylan Cunha, Tony Martin, Jack Jones, Ewan Whillans, Joseph O’Brien (12-1, 7-2 and 5-4 winners at Gowran on Flat on Wednesday, so poor run has stopped – and another winner on Thursday),
Moderate: Jane Williams (5-2 winner on Tuesday stemmed the ride though, so probably more fair), Keiran Burke (winner on Tuesday though), Greenall and Guerriero, Charlie Longsdon, Parkinson and Smith (small sample though and 10-3 winner on Wednesday), Ian Patrick Donoghue (one beaten a head), Harry Derham, Denis Hogan, Ciaran Murphy (last runner came second)
Don’t know: Tom Dascombe, Eric McNamara, Neil King (one winner; four runners), Tom George, Mouse Morris, Eoin McCarthy, William Durkan, M K Flannery, George Baker
4pm Grand National – Monty and Tom for Henry, or Clare for Willie? Monty –…
FRIDAY MORNING BETTING UPDATE – very little happening again but Sober Glory continues to go…
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