By Tony Calvin - 10 March 2026
Leader D’Allier is out at 10.55am (lame).
I know it isn’t what you want to hear at this stage – and certainly not bookmakers, who are itching for our Festival coin – but the thing that immediately struck me was just how difficult Tuesday’s card at Cheltenham is from a punting point of view.
Then again, is there any other kind? (I had flashbacks of Jack Nicholson in A Few Good Men when writing that).
Actually, Ill add a big proviso.
I actually fancy far too many of the market leaders on the day but the big issue I had was that their current prices are largely a turn-off.
Take Old Park Star here, for example.
He has looked devastating in wide-margin successes here and at Haydock, and the form of his 18-length Rossington Main success from the 136-rated Hurricane Pat on the latter course sees him as very much the one to beat here.
But is even a drifting [11/4] enough to make him a bet here? (incidentally that is with AKBets, who are top price everything in here).
Not quite for me, but very close.
If he hits [7/2], or 3s anywhere, I’ll get involved to a fair degree.
And that may happen, he says optimistically.
He is by far the most likely winner to me, and I’ll ensure I don’t lose if he wins.
AKBets are currently best at [11/4] on Monday afternoon.
He hasn’t really done it on the clock yet – Sober Glory, and to a lesser extent, Mypaddydaddy have – he has only 1lb in hand of Grade 1 winner Talk The Talk on official figures (though Timeform rate the Henderson horse a punchy 155p and well clear of this field), and he has shown his hand far more than the Willie Mullins trio of Mighty Park, the talked-up Leader D’Allier and the smart ex-Flat horse Too Bossy For Us, who impressed me when winning an admittedly modest-enough maiden hurdle on soft/heavy at Punchestown last time.
Plus, you have to factor in this being run on genuine, unwatered good to soft ground (unfortunately that is no longer the case after Monday’s news) after a largely Monsoon season.
Simply put, I think this is a very deep race – for all Old Park Star is the top dog going in – and I can easily see a scenario where a double-digit horse causes an upset of sorts.
I took a flier and had a very small each-way bet on the aforementioned Too Bossy For Us at 50s on Sunday afternoon (I couldn’t access the 66s, which got quickly snapped up anyway).
He is probably the least talented hurdler in here, with the exception of Sageborough and Baron Noir perhaps, on the evidence so far but obviously that Punchestown contest (in a first-time tongue-tie, retained here) was the first time he had a realistic chance of success – he had run in Grade 1 company on his first two starts last season -and his 92-rated Flat form strongly suggests the better ground will suit him.
He actually ran very well when seventh on his hurdling debut in last year’s Triumph, not being given a hard race at all by Harry Cobden, and Mullins often plays the long game with these types, as we have seen with Ethical Diamond, in the same ownership.
In fact, there are similarities between the two horses. Indeed, Too Bossy For Us won the same Punchestown race the Breeders’ Cup Turf winner Ethical Diamond did the year before.
And the longer run-in than usual may well help this 1m6f/2m stayer on the Flat to stage a late, late show here.
At the price, I have paid small to find out.
It took a while for his jockey to be confirmed on Sunday, but I wasn’t too disappointed to see Cobden back up, having ridden the horse in the Triumph and in the Grade 1 at Punchestown afterwards (Paul Townend was on board last time).
Townend now takes the ride after the NR.
And to satisfy one of my many conspiracy theories, he was one of the few Mullins horses not to be mentioned in a recent Sporting Life Festival stable tour.
It probably means this is an afterthought, but even so….
I had a google to see what Mullins said about the horse after the Punchestown win and found this on the RTE website.
Mullins said: “”He did it nicely. It was a slow enough run contest and we’d have preferred a faster one.
“He still has a bit of improving to do, he jumped the last very high which showed he has plenty left in the tank. Once he learns to come down and hurdle properly he should improve more.
“He has enough class for the Supreme, but we’ll have a look and see what races he’s in and what he’s qualified for, we won’t make a decision at this stage.
“He’ll hopefully be a horse that will be dual purpose during the summer. He’s a horse we might try to qualify for the Melbourne Cup as well.”
The 50s is available with six bookmakers as this goes live, including with AKBets (and 40s, four places, with another firm if you’d rather and can access – it’s up to you).
Even allowing for stacks of pace in here – imagine he will be to the fore, too – he may well be too slow for these on this ground (he was also in the Turners), but that’s my opening swing, anyway.
TUESDAY MORNING BETTING UPDATE (7.05am): No great moves. Mydaddypaddy, Leader D’Allier and Sober Glory are all reasonably strong. Mighty Park weak.
Just the seven runners in the Arkle – though it is probably the first time this season we have had five UK runners in a novices’ chase (only joking Tom Byrne – or at least I am hoping I am…) – and those numbers were only bolstered by Mambonumberfive being stuck in the race at the very last minute.
I spoke too soon. Mambonumberfive has come out at 2.58pm on Monday with a bruised foot.
I’ve no real betting opinion in this now we are betting to two places – there is no point pretending otherwise, though the ante-post posse on Kargese each way are sitting pretty – and I’d agree with the market that Kopek Des Bordes and Lulamba are highly likely to fill those if jumping with any degree of fluency, as best-price quotes of [17/10] and [9/5] , both with AKBets, collectively underline.
If.
As I always says, that two-letter word is the most expensive in betting.
Some bookmakers will be betting without the top two here. Indeed, the first firm to offer this market on Sunday bet: 10/11 Kargese, 3 Steel Ally, 5 Jax Junior, 6s Mambonumberfive and 11s Hansard.
I’d have probably sided with Steel Ally of those prices, as he was very good in a fast time in the three-runner Kingmaker last time, though his record suggests he would want it a lot deeper than is likely here (Monday’s unexpected watering helped him a touch, then).
And Jax Junior probably wasn’t a bad price at 5s, either (update – they are now 11/4 and 9/2 respectively).
But if a bet or an angle isn’t there, don’t force it. That’s the message for the week from this quarter.
Incidentally, why is every tipster asked for a Lucky 15 these days? I bet hardly any follow their own advice, and probably with good reason.
It’s all for betting partners, and all a bit too obvious.
Stop it.
TUESDAY MORNING BETTING UPDATE (7.07am): Kopek Des Bordes is currently stronger than Lulamba. 6/4 plays 7/4.
First things first, please do ensure you get you money back on the balloted-out horses (see below). It is hard enough trying to keep your head above water in this punting lark, as it is, without giving the layers their Christmas sleeper money.
They don’t come much harder than a full-field, 22-runner Fred Winter.
Rather annoyingly, my short list of three – Winston Junior, Manlaga and Glen To Glen – are all towards the top of the betting and I didn’t know whether to get involved as a result.
I was also impressed by Bibe Mus at Sandown on Saturday and I can see him going well under a 5lb penalty, but any race in that Sandown hurdles’ ground is going to take it out of you, however seemingly comfortable the success.
If you asked me which of the above trio I think is the most likely winner I’d say Winston Junior as the handbrake was let off in an impressive Ascot win last time, after the mother and father of all eyecatchers here previously when he was second to Minella Study.
I get the impression he wouldn’t have been out of place in the Triumph Hurdle, so he has to be a massive player here off 130. But [13/2] against 21 rivals in a real bunfight?
Maybe not – will any of these relish that prospect? – but he had nine starts on the Flat (rated 89), he is weighted to go very close and the booking of Jack Kennedy certainly wouldn’t deter you.
After consideration, I think he is the best bet in here at [13/2], either win-only or each-way. You decide. (he is 7s in one place).
I have played win-only at the moment, for what it is worth but if you can get that 7s each way, five places, take it.
Glen To Glen hails from a stable that has won the last two runnings of this cheats’ charter (sorry, hugely competitive handicap) – they also copped it in 2019 too – even if he could hardly have been given a higher mark than 129.
But he did do it snugly when beating Ole Ole on testing ground at Cork in December (after the leader fell at the last) and I imagine they left off him since after they knew he had the mark to get in here.
And better ground is a plus for a horse that finished fourth in the Golden Gates off 90 on fast ground at Royal Ascot.
This is hard but I have played Winston Junior small, win and each way, and Glen To Glen even smaller at 12s (both win-only and Winston Junior each way too), though the latter is now just 10s in two places.
Not a race to go in feet-first.
TUESDAY MORNING BETTING UPDATE (7.09am): Not much movement from what I have seen.
It will surprise no-one if either of the Greenall/Guerriero-JP pair of Jagwar and Iroko wins this, and the big man (JP that is – I have no idea how big the two trainers are) doesn’t have a bad third string in the shape of Johnnywho.
Incidentally, it is JP’s 75th birthday on Tuesday, so maybe he will be another having a Lucky 15 on four of his….
The problem, as with the previous race, is that the first-named pair in the intro have hardly been missed in the market at 4s and 7s respectively, not that I would be particularly inclined to puff my chest out and lay them at those prices.
Jagwar, in particular, has a huge chance, for all he is unproven over the 3m1f trip. But therein lies his potential upside, especially on the decent ground.
Certainly, I think a mark of 152 underplays his talent, as the handicapper could have been generous in only raising him 3lb for a narrow defeat here last time (he may have been beaten a head but he was 10 lengths clear of the third), and his run-style and pedigree (half-brother to David Pipe’s 3m5f winner D’Jango) suggests he could take a leap forward into Graded territory by winning this.
And obviously his course form (1132, including a win in the Plate at last year’s Festival, when he was very strong through the line) is as solid as it gets.
Most people would agree Mark Walsh is an upgrade on Jonjo O’Neill junior, and the stable are in very fair nick. He is over [9/2] on the exchange and that is not a bad win-only option whatsoever.
I have had a bit myself, as I would rather play on the nose rather than each-way, as the stamina is a doubt.
In these circumstances, I would normally look for an each-way play too, and I did consider Hyland at 11s and Henry de Bromhead’s 20s poke The Short Go (has had a wind op), though the latter has been dealt a harsh enough hand by the assessor.
He is rated 131 in Ireland but is on 138 here, seemingly upped 2lb for a 5 ¼ length defeat last time when 2lb out of the handicap.
But I have been tempted in by him at bigger than 33s on the exchange (nearer 40s), as he has very solid course form and the like the trainer at this meeting, and at 15s by Hyland, three times a winner around here, on a good mark of 142 and in the first-time cheekpieces. Hopefully the latter can get into an early good rhythm near the front end.
I’ll stress again that I have played small here. Three win-only darts, with Jagwar easily the biggest – one of those old-fashioned, big barrel ones from the 70s.
TUESDAY MORNING BETTING UPDATE (7.07am): Nothing much doing here so far.
Lossiemouth rocking up has put a different complexion on this race, and not least because she now heads the betting at [21/10]. A catchy price offered by your host.
Connections could well throw a six after rolling the big dice here but she is surely a walkaway price now, even if they apparently found a physical excuse for her disappointing second to Brighterdaysahead at the DRF last time.
In fact, very few of these appealed to me at current prices, with the exception of two, Golden Ace and Workahead.
Lossiemouth has probably now nabbed one of the three places on offer for punters but Golden Ace at 9s each way looks fair , with AKBets best again (she is very weak on the exchange currently, nearing 12s as this goes live).
Golden Ace is even fairer now at 12s.
We know how lucky Golden Ace was when winning this race last year and maybe when winning the Fighting Fifth this season, too. And she is rated a mere 152.
But her Cheltenham CV is impressive as she beat Brighterdaysahead by 1 ¾ lengths in the mares’ novice hurdle here in 2024 (she was getting 5lb, mind you) as well as netting another success at the track, though you can throw in an admittedly underwhelming Relkeel third, too.
However, the main reason that I’d side with her is that I think, in the conditions, she probably ran as well as she has ever done when second to Sir Gino last time, especially as Kempton may not be her ideal track.
And I think she holds as solid a place chance as most of these, if not all.
Workahead could have run in the County Hurdle off a mark of 148 (the same rating as Alexei), so he is clearly much harder to explain. But he is 80s in two places and that looks a tad too big in a race full of ifs and buts.
De Bromhead may not be in the best of form, but he had a winner last week and his horses tend to grow a leg at this meeting, in common with Gavin Cromwell’s.
He blew out when sent off a [15/2] chance in last year’s Supreme, following a 7-length defeat of subsequent Supreme runner-up William Munny at Leopardstown, and De Bromhead took a while to get him back on the track this season.
The first run was underwhelming but there was a lot more promise in his second in the Red Mills on heavy ground last time, so hopefully he can step up markedly again here on this better ground. Timeform called it good when he beat Willam Munny.
Plus, I can see a scenario where he gets an uncontested lead here, or at the very least get a nice sit in second behind Tutti Quanti.
Famous last words – I’ve probably backed worse 80s pokes each way.
TUESDAY MORNING BETTING UPDATE (7.11am): Lossiemouth is currently strong at 19/10 best. The weakness in Golden Ace has been striking. She is 12s in a few places.
A common theme in this Tuesday column is that I can fully see plenty of market leaders winning on the card, but I am dithering about whether they represent good/acceptable bets at the current odds.
Step forward Madara and McLaurey here as the [9/2] joint favourites (bigger on the exchange). They hold outstanding claims.
Now, Madara, having only his fifth start for the Skeltons, rather caught the eye when a means-to-an-end second to Issam at Kempton last time. Some may say he stuttered into his fences slightly in the straight and stayed on nicely enough for second, but maximum effort was not called for, I think we can all agree.
The horse is relatively unexposed at this trip, he has good course form, he has big handicap experience (having won at the DRF when trained by Sophie Leech), and the cheekpieces that he wore for his career-best effort (at this track) are back on for the first time this season.
There is little not to like, bar the borderline price.
Similar comments apply to McLaurey, and no kitchen sink was in evidence in his Down Royal fourth over 2m+ last time, and after just four chase starts, we are probably only scratching the surface with him as a 133-chased chaser.
And this horse is another DRF winner, having beaten Storm Heart in a 2m handicap hurdle there last season, and the step back up in trip will suit this winning pointer. It has been a classic prep for a race like this in many ways.
I’d be shit scared of both of them if backing anything else in the race, but are they around 6/4 and 7/4 combined at the generally available odds (they both range between 4s and 9/2).
I do struggle to see that in a 23-runner race but, against that, this does look a weak renewal of the Plate. I don’t want to lose if either of those win, so I’ll back them both.
Of the outsiders, I could actually see Skelton’s Riskintheground going well at 40s despite him failing to beat a horse home in his last three starts, and just one in his outing before that.
But he shaped okay in the old Hennessy over 3m2f back in November, and when sixth (of seven finishers, admittedly…) here over this trip on his following start, and he is back on the same mark as when winning over this trip on the New Course on decent ground in April.
That is as big a guess-up as it gets though, and he could easily go at three-figures on the exchange.
We are probably all guilty about reading too much into Skelton handicappers (I am), but that one at 40s and Midnight It Is at 25s+ win-only are two against the obvious favs, of which I just prefer McLaurey, even though he finished last in the County here last season and his trainer seems concerned by the ground and his lack of chasing experience.
I suspect he may not be after the race…but then again he may have just finished second to Madara.
TUESDAY MORNING BETTING UPDATE (7.14am): Again, a reasonably static market from what I can see. Down Memory Lane and Downmexicoway have been nibbled behind the front two.
This is getting embarrassing – I think Backmersackme is a very decent bet at 5-1+ on the exchange as at 5pm (top at 9/2 fixed odds now at 5.30pm, which is an each-way price obviously, and even that may lengthen) and I have backed him accordingly.
Simply because I thought he had outstanding claims and I didn’t fancy much else in this 3m6f handicap.
He has drifted to 8.8 as at 11.30am, so I have pressed up (and at 13/2 each way fixed odds, too – here is hoping…).
I won’t keep you long here as the argument for him pretty much writes itself.
He finally got his act together when winning over 2m5f+ at Leopardstown last time, and everything about his profile suggests he did wonders to win there over that trip.
Basically, because he was pegged as a stayer in waiting after flying home to finish second over 3m1f here in October, to add to an earlier excellent hurdles effort over 3m1f in December 2024 at Navan.
He is effectively 10lb higher than when winning off an Irish mark of 125 at the DRF last time but that doesn’t overly concern me, as that run here in October suggests he is highly likely to appreciate this stamina test and improve markedly for it.
The stable won this race in 2024 (when a non-handicap) and this looks an ideal opportunity for win number two for Emmet Mullins.
I really do like his chance, for all he is an obvious conveyance at the price.
Sometimes the bleedin’ obvious is the best route to take.
Good luck on the day.
I haven’t played big at all and, looking at Wednesday’s mammoth fields, I probably won’t be there either!
TUESDAY MORNING BETTING UPDATE (7.16am): Tuesday betting has been pretty tame so far but Iceberg Theory has been solidly supported so far.
Backmersackme in the 5.20pm – now available at 13/2 and getting bigger as at 11.30am
GOING: Good to soft
GOING STICK : 5.5, Tuesday 9am
(was 6.2, Monday 6.30am)
Rails: Chase rail +6y
Tuesday morning course update: 226.5mm since January 1st. 0.5mm overnight. Dry forecast today (12 degrees)
WEATHER (yr.no latest, 6.37am Tuesday): 1.9mm Tuesday (7pm onwards), 1.2mm Wednesday, 4.5mm Thursday, 2.3mm Friday
WATERING: 3-5mm selectively applied yesterday.
2.40pm: Munsif, Lord, La Luna Artista, Dawn Coming, Lynches Knock, Combs, Misterdoc, Wackestone, Manganese, Kizlyar, Cinammon Coco, Secret Force, Wizard Of Odds, Tenter Le Tout, Indian River, Turenne, Scarlet Moon, Bertie Ramirez, Wolf Rayet, Genealogy, Falls Of Acharn, Sonic Pioneer, Tralee Girl, Crooked Path, Made U Blush, Wonderfulwonderful, Galactique, The Bellhop, Love Sonnet
Jessie Harrington cheekpieces; Quinta Do Lago, 2.40pm; 36-310 since 2016
Donald McCain cheekpieces; Lord, 2.40pm; 16-119 since 2016 (NR)
Olly Murphy blinkers; Resplendent Grey, 2.40pm; 2-37 since 2017
Ben Pauling, cheekpieces; Handstands, 3.20pm; 11-89 since 2016
Jonjo and AJ O’Neill cheekpieces; Johnnywho, 3.20pm & Peaky Boy, 4.40pm; 4-24 since 2024
Nicky Henderson cheekpieces; Hyland, 3.20pm; 20-102 since 2016
Willie Mullins cheekpieces; Lossiemouth; 4pm; 12-60 since 2016
NB: Proform stats give more depth, so thanks to Andy Richmond.
Mullins is 9-52 over hurdles when putting pieces on for the first time (17%; -17.75pts to level stakes).
Overall, he is 14-106; 13%; -£59.69 to SP.
Syd Hosie blinkers; Embittered; 4.40pm; 0-2 since 2024
John McConnell, visor; Moon D’Orange, 4.40pm; 0-16 since 2020
Olly Murphy, cheekpieces; Wade Out, 5.20pm; 15-102 since 2017
1.20pm Cheltenham: Eachtotheirown, Koktail Brut, Leader d’Allier, Mighty Park, Old Park Star, Sober Glory
2pm Cheltenham: Hansard?, Steel Ally (prom), Kargese, Kopek Des Bordes?
2.40pm Cheltenham: Klycot, Macktoad, Madness d’Elle, Paddockwood, Pourquoi Pas Papa, Quinta Do Lago, The Mighty Celt, Winston Junior, Bibe Mus (prom)
3.20pm Cheltenham : Filanderer, Handstands , Konfusion, Leave Of Absence, Margaret’s Legacy, Myretown, Quebecois?
4pm Cheltenham: Workahead, Brighterdayshead (prom) , Lossiemouth?, Tutti Quanti
4.40pm Cheltenham: Down Memory Lane, Grandeur d’Ame, Guard Your Dreams, Jipcot, Jungle Boogie, Western Zephyr, Will The Wise, Yes Indeed
5.20pm Cheltenham: First Confession, Grand Geste, Holloway Queen, King Of Answers?, Kurasso Blue, Newton Tornado, Pic Roc?, Silver Thorn, Union Station
Good: Willie Mullins (four-timer on Thursday – and won the Arkle), Hobbs and White (winner on Monday), Joseph O’Brien, Lucy Wadham, Nicky Henderson (treble on Saturday – and won the Supreme), Ben Pauling (5-4 winner on Monday), Warren Greatrex, Emmet Mullins, Rebecca Curtis, Jane Williams (winner on Monday), Russell and Scudamore (bang among the winners of late, four-timer on Saturday, including a 33-1 winner – and at it again on Sunday), Dan Skelton, Greenall and Guerriero (another winner on Sunday)
Fair: Gordon Elliott (12-1 winner on Saturday), Alan King (4-1 winner on Thursday, and others on Saturday and Sunday), Paul Nolan, Gary and Josh Moore (double at Sandown on Saturday), Henry De Bromhead (15-2 winner on Wednesday), James Owen, Joe Tizzard, Paul Nicholls (winner on Saturday), Georgina Nicholls, Richard Bandey (double on Monday), Gavin Cromwell (maybe turning corner after yet another quiet spell – 4-1 winner on Wednesday and the 12-1 winner of the Leinster National on Sunday), Faye Bramley, Venetia Williams (winner on Friday), Olly Murphy (winner on Saturday), Nigel and Willy Twiston Davies (winner on Monday), Jonjo and AJ O’Neill, Parkinson and Smith (winner on Thursday), Anthony Honeyball (double on Monday, including an 11s poke), Syd Hosie (double on Thursday), Emma Lavelle, Jeremy Scott, Donald McCain
Moderate: Sam Thomas, Charles Byrnes, John McConnell, Mickey Bowen
Don’t know (small samples): Barry Connell, Jessie Harrington, Mags Mullins (two runners. two winners so I probably do know…) , Hughie Morrison, Padraig Roche (all four have run moderately), Martin Keighley
That Sandown card on Friday looks one for the ages – well, the 365 Mile…
There are currently 38 in the bet365 Gold Cup, with the progressive Havaila the favourite…
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